Kenya watches El Niño threat as global agency warns of unprecedented strength

Kenya could experience wetter-than-usual conditions during the ongoing short-rains season as the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warns that a developing El Niño may reach unprecedented strength, with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific forecast to rise to 3.8°C above average between November 2026 and January 2027.

The projections come at a critical time for the country, as the October-December rains play a major role in agricultural production, livestock survival and the availability of water, particularly in arid and semi-arid areas.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the expected intensity of the weather phenomenon exceeds the limits of monitoring charts that have been used for the past four decades.

“This is literally off the monitoring charts that we have used for the past four decades. El Niño will peak towards the end of 2026, but its impacts will be felt long after that,” she said.

Her remarks highlight concerns about the potential reach of the weather event, whose effects could persist beyond its expected peak towards the end of the year.

El Niño develops when temperatures on the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean rise at least 0.5°C above average. The resulting changes can influence weather conditions in different parts of the world, sometimes bringing drought while triggering heavy rainfall and flooding elsewhere.

The event can also contribute to rising temperatures over extensive areas, increasing the risk of extreme weather conditions.

However, Saulo said the possibility of severe weather should not automatically translate into a humanitarian crisis, provided governments and relief agencies make use of available scientific information to prepare communities.

“But a powerful El Niño does not have to be a recipe for humanitarian disaster. We have the science, the forecasts and the early warning systems to save lives and protect livelihoods,” she said at a joint press conference with UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Tom Fletcher.

“What we need now is decisive action, especially to protect the most vulnerable communities.”

The WMO said there was still an opportunity for many countries to put preventive measures in place, although the time available to prepare would gradually narrow.

It called on governments and humanitarian organisations to use weather forecasts to identify possible threats, strengthen emergency planning and reduce the exposure of vulnerable populations to extreme conditions.

Data contained in the organisation's latest Global Seasonal Climate Update shows that El Niño strengthened between July and September 2026, with temperatures across the equatorial Pacific continuing to increase.

The monthly Niño 3.4 index rose from 2.0°C above average to 2.8°C during the period, indicating sustained warming across the region.

The forecast for November 2026 to January 2027 points to a higher likelihood of above-normal rainfall across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

Increased chances of above-average precipitation are also projected across areas stretching from the Arabian Peninsula through Central Asia and into parts of East Asia.

The Greater Horn of Africa is among the regions where the outlook indicates a greater probability of above-normal rainfall, placing the regional forecast in focus as Kenya progresses through its short-rains season.

Kenya's Meteorological Department has separately forecast rainfall above the seasonal average across much of the country between October and December. However, the timing of the onset and the distribution of rainfall are expected to vary across different regions.

The department's latest weekly forecast identified Nairobi, Kiambu, Embu, Meru, Machakos, Kitui, Makueni and Nakuru among the areas where rainfall could occur.

Other counties listed include Kisumu, Kakamega, Bungoma, Busia, Kisii, Mombasa and Garissa, among others.

The seasonal rains are an important source of moisture for crops, pasture for livestock and water supplies. Communities in arid and semi-arid parts of Kenya depend particularly on seasonal rainfall to support their livelihoods.

The WMO's warning places greater emphasis on preparedness as forecasts point to a potentially powerful El Niño event. The organisation says governments and humanitarian agencies can use existing scientific forecasts and early warning systems to limit the effects of extreme weather and protect communities at risk.