Political analyst Professor Herman Manyora says recent polling by Trends and Insights For Africa (TIFA) shows that opposition political alignment ahead of 2027 remains unsettled, with different leader combinations still competing for public preference and no clear voter consolidation taking shape.
Speaking during a Radio Generation interview on Tuesday, Manyora pointed to findings that tested possible opposition ticket formations for the 2027 elections, including different arrangements for President, running mate and Prime Cabinet Secretary positions. He said the results reflect a political scene that is still open and shifting.
He highlighted one of the leading combinations in the poll, stating, “Matiang'i Sifuna Kalonzo at 18%, the highest,” explaining it as a structure where “Matiang'i is President, and then Sifuna as running mate, and then Prime Secretary Kalonzo.”
Manyora said the results do not point to a settled direction among voters, noting that preferences are still developing and can change depending on how questions are framed and repeated over time. In his view, the current picture reflects uncertainty rather than firm political alignment.
The remarks come after TIFA released a survey on June 4, 2026, conducted between May 2 and May 11, 2026, which has been used as a key reference in tracking shifting voter sentiment ahead of the 2027 presidential race. The study focused on possible opposition alignments involving Fred Matiang’i, Edwin Sifuna, Kalonzo Musyoka and Rigathi Gachagua, among others.
The survey sampled 2,013 respondents through face-to-face household interviews conducted in Swahili and English across nine zones, including Central Rift, Coast, Lower Eastern, Mt Kenya, Nairobi, Northern, Nyanza, South Rift and Western regions. It carried a margin of error of ±2.18%.
According to the findings, William Ruto led with 24%, followed by Kalonzo Musyoka at 19%, Fred Matiang’i at 14%, Edwin Sifuna at 10% and Rigathi Gachagua at 9%.
The poll further showed a divided opposition field, with Kalonzo–Sifuna and Kalonzo–Matiang’i emerging as the most preferred ticket combinations among respondents.
Manyora argued that the variation in combinations shows that voter choices are still fluid and not yet anchored on firm alliances. He added that repeated polling over time would be necessary to detect clearer trends rather than relying on a single snapshot.
He also raised concerns about regional limitations in sampling, saying such constraints may not fully reflect national sentiment and could influence how results are interpreted.
He said, “It shows you that it’s not quite crystallized, perhaps the way it was,”
He added, “If it is done so consistently, and you’re talking about the same questions being asked, the same combinations being asked, but the time is done say three times over a period of time, you may actually get a clearer understanding,”
Manyora further noted that opinion polls should be treated as indicators of mood at a specific time, rather than fixed predictions of electoral outcomes, since political preferences can shift depending on unfolding events and public perception.
He concluded that opposition alliances are still in formation and are likely to continue evolving as the country moves closer to the 2027 elections, with polling best understood through repeated measurement over time.