The African Union has turned once more to Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni to help mediate Sudan’s worsening conflict, but experts say his mission faces deep-rooted obstacles.
The move came during the 1308th meeting of the AU Peace and Security Council, the continent’s body responsible for addressing urgent security threats.
In a statement released on Thursday, the council said: “The Council directs the Chairperson of the AU Commission to urgently engage with the Members of the PSC Presidential ad-hoc committee, under the leadership of Museveni...to urgently facilitate the negotiation process between the leaders of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary RSF, including the holding of an AU Special Summit on Sudan.”
The decision follows intense fighting in El-Fasher, the last major city under SAF control in western Sudan. After a prolonged siege, the RSF seized the city, triggering reports of civilian abuses that UN investigators describe as ethnic cleansing targeting non-Arab populations. Analysts say the violence is part of both parties’ strategy to retain control after losing legitimacy in the 2021 coup.
Jihad Mashamoun, a Sudan-focused political analyst, says both the SAF and RSF have long been delegitimized in the eyes of Sudanese citizens and the international community.
“The Sudanese, from the get-go, suspected that those individuals and allies of the former regime and others will undermine Sudan’s transition to democracy. The use of sanctions has not been robust to halt this war,” Mashamoun told The EastAfrican.
He added that both sides have learned to navigate sanctions and international pressure, following tactics of the former Omar al-Bashir regime.
“As for Burhan and his de-facto government, the international community could press them further until he and his allies hand power to credible and democratic civilian transition authority,” Mashamoun said. “One method to ending this war is to pressure Burhan and his de facto government. As once the war ends they have no more justification to continue to stay in power.”
The SAF and RSF are heavily sanctioned for war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide by the US and UK, yet fighting continues. Dr Mashamoun suggested that designating these forces as terrorist organizations could serve as a stronger deterrent to outside supporters.
Previous peace attempts by the AU, US, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Egypt failed to bring the warring parties to the table.
Since April 2023, when the RSF led by Mohamed Hamdani Dagalo clashed with the SAF under Gen Burhan over transition disputes, both sides have attacked civilians, worsening the humanitarian crisis.
El-Fasher’s fall could allow the RSF to form a parallel government, but it also risks dividing Sudan along the lines of Libya’s conflict. While Burhan’s junta maintains some international recognition, its suspension by the AU has weakened the bloc’s role as a neutral mediator.
Sudan has accused neighboring countries of siding with the RSF, prompting its temporary suspension from the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, which had sought to mediate earlier.
