Millions across eastern Africa are confronting worsening drought conditions that threaten food and water security, according to a recent advisory from the Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC).
The advisory highlights that rainfall shortages over the past three months have caused soil to dry up and vegetation to weaken, raising the risk of agricultural and pastoral losses across Kenya, Somalia, Uganda, and Tanzania.
Issued Wednesday, January 14, and effective until February 13, the report identifies several critical drought zones, including eastern Kenya, large sections of Somalia, central Uganda, and parts of central and northern Tanzania.
“Analysis of October–December rainfall using the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) reveals that significant rainfall deficits across most of these areas have persisted in the last three months. Corresponding crop and pasture warning levels indicate that these deficits have translated into soil moisture shortages, vegetation stress, or a combination of both,” the advisory states.
“Collectively, these conditions have elevated alert levels in the affected areas, signalling heightened vulnerability to agricultural and pastoral impacts.”
The advisory points to global climate factors influencing the ongoing dryness. It notes that while La Niña is expected to weaken and likely end by February 2026, its presence along with changing Indian Ocean conditions has affected rainfall patterns in eastern Africa.
“The current Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and atmospheric circulation anomalies indicate that La Niña is likely to continue in the tropical Pacific, while the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has moved from negative phase to neutral. The neutral IOD conditions are expected to continue through the advisory period, while La Niña is expected to weaken and most likely end during February 2026,” ICPAC explains.
Despite the easing of these climate influences, much of the region is in the dry season between the long and short rains, leaving little hope for rainfall sufficient to restore soil moisture or relieve stressed vegetation.
Looking ahead, January to March 2026 forecasts predict that drier-than-usual conditions will persist in regions not currently in dry season, including Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi. ICPAC warns that prolonged dryness could further affect food production, livestock, water supplies, and health outcomes.
Data from the East Africa Agriculture Watch show that parts of Somalia, Kenya, and Tanzania are experiencing combined water and vegetation stress. Observed SPI readings for October to December 2025 confirm persistent rainfall deficits, while seasonal forecasts indicate continued dryness across many vulnerable areas.
The advisory clarifies that a Climate Watch is issued when drought indicators, crop conditions, or rangeland assessments show a shortage of water and vegetation, affecting populations in more than one country and over five million people.
ICPAC relied on sources including the East Africa Drought Watch, East Africa Agriculture Watch, and sea surface temperature observations.
The Centre said the advisory will be updated on or before February 13, 2026, as conditions evolve.
