Kenya is grappling with a shrinking electricity supply as old thermal power plants are retired, while demand for energy continues to climb. The country’s total installed power generation capacity has dropped, raising concerns about maintaining a stable national grid.
Official records show that as of June 2025, installed capacity stood at 3,192 megawatts, down from 3,199.9 megawatts in June 2024 and 3,311.10 megawatts in June 2023.
Analysts say the decline of 119.1 megawatts over three years is largely due to the decommissioning of thermal power plants, which were costly and heavily polluting.
The exit of these plants is part of a strategy to transition to cleaner energy. However, with a slowdown in new power projects and a freeze on new purchase agreements, Kenya has struggled to fill the gap left by the retired plants.
Electricity demand has surged alongside population growth and industrial expansion. Peak power usage rose to 2,439.06 megawatts in December 2025, up 290.06 megawatts from 2,149 megawatts in June 2023.
The rising consumption has left reserve margins tight, making it harder to manage the grid during maintenance or unexpected plant outages.
To prevent blackouts, Kenya has increasingly relied on electricity imports from Uganda and Ethiopia
. “Kenya will be positioned as a net electricity importer if these two factors (fall in installed capacity and a fast-growing consumption) are not abetted by adequate and timely pipeline energy projects in the medium and long term,” the Energy ministry recently warned.
The thermal generation capacity dropped from 681.9 megawatts in June 2023 to 564.8 megawatts last year, following the closure of the Kipevu 1 and Garissa plants.
Slight decreases were also recorded in renewable sources, with solar capacity falling from 212.6 megawatts to 210.3 megawatts, and wind power dropping from 436.1 megawatts to 435.5 megawatts.
The 119.1-megawatt decline is roughly equivalent to three medium-sized wind power plants, excluding the 310-megawatt Lake Turkana Wind Power project, which remains connected to the grid.
Experts say having high installed capacity is essential to ensure a reliable electricity supply, providing a buffer for maintenance, unexpected outages, and variability in renewable generation.
Plans to replace retired thermal plants with clean energy projects have been slow, leaving Kenya vulnerable to reduced local electricity production. The need for timely and adequate energy projects is critical to bridging the gap and avoiding a major strain on the country’s power supply.
