Sub-Saharan Africa’s recent economic rebound is now under fresh strain as global shocks, including the war in the Middle East, begin to threaten gains made in growth, inflation control and debt stability, the International Monetary Fund has warned in a new assessment.
The report says the region entered 2026 on a strong footing after recording solid performance in 2025, but rising external pressures are now expected to slow momentum and push up prices, putting pressure on food systems, public finances and long-term development plans.
According to the Fund, the region recorded its strongest expansion in a decade.
“The region had notched its fastest growth rate in 10 years—4.5 percent in 2025,” it said, attributing the gains to reduced macroeconomic imbalances, rising investment, and supportive external conditions.
Several economies were singled out for strong performance, including Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia and Rwanda, which recorded growth above 6 percent.
Inflation also eased across the region.
“The median inflation rate fell to about 3.5 percent,” while public debt levels began to decline.
The IMF said these gains were driven by difficult reforms.
“These gains were hard-won, the fruit of politically difficult but meaningful reforms such as exchange-rate realignments, better spending allocation, and tighter monetary policies,” it noted.
On public finances, the report pointed to steady improvement.
“The region’s general government primary balance has been steadily improving and is now near balance,” it said, contrasting this with wider deficits in other global economies.
Despite this progress, the Fund warned that new global risks are now reversing some of the stability gains, with the war in the Middle East emerging as a major threat.
It said the conflict has pushed up global commodity prices and disrupted trade.
“It has pushed up global prices for oil, gas, and fertilizer, disrupted trade routes, and tightened financial conditions,” it said.
Growth across the region is now expected to weaken.
“We expect growth to slow to 4.3 percent this year,” it said, adding that this is “some 0.3 percentage points below pre-war forecasts.”
The Fund noted that even small shifts in inflation could have wide effects across developing economies.
“Any hit to growth is problematic,” it said, pointing to the region’s need to create jobs for a fast-growing population.
It also highlighted growing differences between oil importers and exporters, with importers facing higher costs and weaker trade balances, while exporters remain exposed to price swings and budget risks.
In a worse scenario, the report warned of deeper losses.
“Regional output this year could fall 0.6 percent below pre-war forecasts,” it said, while inflation could rise by “an additional 2.4 percentage points.”
Food security risks were also flagged as severe.
“A 20 percent rise in international food prices could push more than 20 million people into food insecurity,” the report warned, adding that “2 million children under age 5” could face acute malnutrition.
Climate shocks were also cited, with recent floods in Mozambique and Madagascar showing rising environmental risks.
The IMF also warned that external support is shrinking, saying there is a “structural break in aid flows” that is affecting fragile states and essential public services, especially healthcare.
Debt risks are also rising across the region.
“More than one-third of countries are at high risk of, or already in, debt distress,” it said, pointing to rising interest costs and lower concessional lending.
To manage the risks, the Fund urged governments to keep policies stable.
It advised policymakers to “anchor inflation expectations, shield the most vulnerable from rising prices, and avoid procyclical fiscal policies.”
Oil exporters were told to save extra revenue, while countries that import oil and have fiscal space were advised to use “targeted, time-bound support.”
Looking ahead, the IMF said deeper reforms are needed to support long-term growth, including stronger institutions, better governance and reforms in state-owned firms.
It also pointed to digital growth opportunities, including artificial intelligence, but warned that infrastructure gaps remain wide.
“Just 53 percent of the region’s population has access to electricity, and only 38 percent to the internet,” it said.
The report concluded that while recent gains are real, the region now faces a key test as external shocks grow and policy choices become more difficult.