Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) MP Daniel Manduku has warned that the party is on the brink of fragmentation following the death of former party leader Raila Odinga, cautioning that the party can no longer depend on the unifying force of the man who held together diverse regional interests for decades.
Speaking in an interview on Radio Generation on Tuesday, the Nyaribari Masaba legislator said ODM’s strength was historically anchored not on ideology but on Raila Odinga’s personal influence, charisma, and ability to understand the political interests of different communities across the country.
“In this case, we believed that we stood for democracy, human rights, the rule of law, and the deepening of devolution. But that is more about paper talk,” Manduku said. “Political parties are based on personalities in Kenya, and don’t be cheated about it.”
Manduku said that for years, ODM operated as a personality-driven formation, noting that if Raila had shifted parties before his death, the majority of supporters would have followed him.
“If he left ODM before he died and went to Kazi Kwa Kazi party, 90% of us would follow him into that party. It was about his persona, not about any foundation or ideology,” he added.
The MP said the vacuum left behind has already unleashed uncertainty, with supporters unsure of the party's future direction.
He revealed that during recent ODM celebrations in Mombasa, leaders avoided ideological conversations and focused instead on internal changes and political positioning.
“Anyone who stood on stage spoke either about remaining in the broad-based government or about the looming changes in the party, but no speaker talked about ideologies,” he said.
Manduku warned that the absence of Raila Odinga, whom he described as the party’s binding force, has opened the door for regional realignments.
He said Raila’s unique understanding of Kenya’s geopolitical and historical complexities made him capable of keeping regional blocs united within ODM.
“In Raila, we saw a rebirth of regional interests being taken care of. He could go to Kisii and understand what the Gusii nation wanted, go to Mombasa and understand what the Coast people wanted, go to Turkana and know their needs,” Manduku said. “Now, in the absence of Raila Odinga, I don’t see any other person who would understand the geopolitical nature of our politics.”
He disclosed that the Gusii community has already begun shifting away from ODM, rallying instead around former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i.
“The Gusii people, I can tell you, have left ODM… They are headed to their son, Fred Matiang’i,” Manduku declared, noting that he was the only ODM MP from the region at the recent Mombasa event.
He also pointed to emerging divisions at the Coast, a long-time ODM stronghold, where local leaders are considering forming their own political vehicles.
“It is likely that the Coast will want to have their own party,” he said. Manduku concluded that fragmentation is inevitable and may even be healthy saying ODM will need a “rebirth or renewal” as it transitions into a post-Raila era.
