Two Cents Leadership Institute Managing Director Mundalo Advice has said the recent by-elections have revealed that proper planning, rather than tribal claims or anti-government feelings, is now the strongest force shaping election outcomes in Kenya.
Speaking on Radio Generation, he said the results showed voters are turning away from old political habits and choosing leaders who offer real answers.
He noted that campaigns built on community identity or anger toward the government no longer sway voters as they once did. Instead, he said better coordination and a clear plan on the ground are deciding winners. “The political reality is that he who gets better organized wins the election,” Mundalo said on Tuesday.
“The voter today is not buying narratives and census of tribes. President William Ruto actually does know how to win elections. He who organizes elections and he who knows how to organize themselves.”
Mundalo said the opposition keeps assuming that public frustration with the government automatically translates into votes for them. He warned that this approach is outdated and no longer dependable.
“Opposition keeps thinking that people will vote for you because they don’t like government. They are busy banking on a narrative and a fallacy that because people have a problem with government, or because there is hate, then they become the better alternative. That kind of politics used to work sometime back,” he explained.
Drawing from the 2022 elections, he said the Kenyan voter now expects leaders to present practical answers to the challenges they face. According to him, citizens are no longer willing to support leaders who offer criticism without showing what they intend to do.
“People want something more solid. Even if we don’t like the government, we want our leaders to tell us something tangible. We are not just going to trust you because we don’t like the government,” he said.
Mundalo praised UDA’s approach during the by-elections, saying the party went into the contest with strong structures, clear coordination and a prepared team.
“President Ruto and UDA were extremely organized. When the times preceding the by-elections came, they really touched down on the chest-thumping that normally has characteristic of governments. There was a lot of coercion, yes, but it was well-coordinated,” Mundalo said.
Even so, he pointed out that Bungoma stood out as the one place where UDA did not follow the same pattern used elsewhere. He said the strategy applied in the county was different from the approach that helped the party in other areas.
“The only place where the election did not go UDA’s way was in Bungoma. When you look at the formula used in Bungoma versus the formula used in other places, there’s a world of a difference,” he noted.
Mundalo urged the opposition to face the current political environment honestly and shift from blame to preparation. He said they must invest in strong structures and give voters something clear to trust.
“This by-election showed that President Ruto is better organized than the opposition, and looking for excuses is not going to be helpful,” he said.
The November 27, 2025 by-elections handed UDA major victories in Mbeere North, Malava, Baringo and Banisa constituencies, while ODM secured Ugunja, Kasipul and Magarini parliamentary seats.
In the ward races, UDA won seven out of the 17 seats, with ODM taking one. The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission has already gazetted the results for the 7 parliamentary constituencies and 17 county assembly wards.
