The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is navigating a period of uncertainty and internal tension as it adjusts to life without its long-standing leader, Raila Odinga, a new TIFA Research survey shows.
The findings depict a party at a crossroads, attempting to balance engagement with President William Ruto’s Broad-Based Government and managing expectations from its supporters ahead of the 2027 General Election.
The poll highlights that while ODM remains the most popular single party in Kenya, cracks within the organization are becoming more evident. Disagreements are surfacing between the party’s top leadership and its grassroots on the best way forward politically.
Rising Popularity, Fading Unity
According to TIFA, ODM’s nationwide popularity has climbed to 20 per cent, surpassing President Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) at 16 per cent. Experts suggest the increase may reflect post-Raila sympathy rather than strong approval of the party’s current political stance.
Despite close ties with Kenya Kwanza, public opinion remains divided. Half of respondents expect ODM to return to the opposition by 2027, while 38 per cent anticipate it will continue cooperating with the government. Among party supporters, similar splits illustrate the internal struggle over the party’s future direction.
Resistance to Supporting Ruto
The survey indicates a strong reluctance among ODM supporters to endorse President Ruto. Only 19 per cent would favor backing him for a second term, even if he formally joined the party.
In contrast, 34 per cent would rather see ODM present its own presidential candidate, and 20 per cent support another figure from the Azimio-opposition bloc.
This reveals a growing tension between the leadership, which has embraced government cooperation, and grassroots supporters who remain cautious about formally aligning with President Ruto.
Leadership Disagreements
Divisions extend to the party’s top ranks and even within the Odinga family. Oburu Odinga, Raila’s elder brother, has assumed a prominent role in guiding the party and has publicly expressed support for continued collaboration with the Broad-Based Government.
This has drawn criticism from other members, while Raila’s daughter, Winnie Odinga, has hinted at alternative political strategies.
“Lesser ODM leaders have challenged Oburu’s pronouncement, claiming that only the party’s National Delegates’ Conference can make such a decision,” the TIFA report noted.
Declining Ethnic and Personal Loyalty
ODM’s calculations are further complicated by a decline in traditional ethnic and personality-driven loyalty that has historically supported the party. Among Luo respondents, those who follow a specific community leader for political guidance have fallen from 63 per cent to 47 per cent since Raila’s death.
“In Raila’s ‘absence,’ both ODM leaders and followers will be freer to ‘make up their own minds’ about what party, coalition, or presidential candidate to support,” the survey stated.
