The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) has warned that the Greater Horn of Africa will experience mixed rainfall patterns and above-average temperatures during the March–May (MAM) 2026 season, urging governments and humanitarian agencies to prepare for potential impacts.
According to ICPAC, there is a 45 per cent chance of wetter-than-normal rainfall across much of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, central and western Kenya, Ethiopia, South Sudan, northern Somalia, and Djibouti.
Meanwhile, a 40 per cent probability of near-normal rainfall is expected over parts of South Sudan, Kenya, Somalia, coastal Tanzania, and isolated areas of Uganda and Ethiopia.
Despite these forecasts, coastal Kenya is likely to experience drier-than-normal conditions, highlighting the uneven distribution of seasonal rains.
The regional body also noted that while the onset of rains is expected to be normal to early in most areas, localized delays may occur in parts of Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Somalia.
Dry spells may still affect regions with expected above-normal rainfall, and wet spells could impact areas projected to receive near- or below-normal rainfall.
On temperatures, warmer-than-average conditions are predicted across much of the region, particularly in Sudan, Djibouti, Tanzania, and portions of Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya. Cooler-than-average conditions are expected in parts of central and northern Ethiopia.
ICPAC urged member states to use regional seasonal outlooks in conjunction with national forecasts and closely monitor sub-seasonal and short-range updates to guide planning.
“Preparedness and anticipatory actions should be scaled up to minimise potential flood and drought impacts, protect lives and livelihoods, and safeguard critical infrastructure,” the statement said.
The centre said it will continue issuing regular updates, while National Meteorological and Hydrological Services will provide detailed, country-specific forecasts and advisories.
