Kenya is staring at a deeper food crisis, with projections showing that more than 2.1 million people could face acute hunger by January 2026 as drought conditions continue to worsen across many regions of the country.
The latest update from the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) warns that the situation is expected to deteriorate further as the country moves into the tough January–March dry period.
In its National Drought Early Warning Bulletin, the authority reports that the prolonged dry spell and poor rainfall have already pushed seven counties into the alert stage, with conditions worsening by the week.
NDMA notes that most areas are likely to receive near-average to below-average rainfall in December, while parts of the North Eastern region may receive highly depressed rains, increasing the threat of further strain.
According to the bulletin, nine counties- Wajir, Garissa, Kilifi, Kitui, Marsabit, Kwale, Kajiado, Isiolo and Tana River are in the alert phase and now “require close monitoring due to emerging drought conditions and potential impacts on food security, water access and pasture availability.”
Mandera remains the only county in the alarm phase and “requires urgent action” as food shortages deepen and livestock losses rise.
The update follows a recent call by the Council of Governors (COG) for the urgent establishment of grain, livestock and hay reserves after early warnings of depressed short and long rains.
NDMA adds that while sixteen counties are still in the normal phase, eight of them are showing a downward trend. “The counties experiencing a worsening trend included Isiolo, Turkana, Makueni, Meru, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Kitui and Marsabit,” the report states.
The authority links the worsening drought to the late onset and poor performance of the October–November–December rains, noting that “ASAL counties, including Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, Meru, Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu, and Taita Taveta received less than 75 per cent of the October 2025 rainfall.”
Livestock conditions continue to deteriorate, with widespread disease outbreaks and rising deaths due to lack of pasture and water. “Cases of cattle deaths suspected to be due to trypanosomiasis were reported in Garissa, while in Kitui they were attributed to Black Quarter disease. Mandera recorded around 107 animal deaths linked to diseases and drought,” the bulletin notes.
Nutrition indicators are also under pressure as families struggle to cope. The report shows that while malnutrition levels remain within expected seasonal ranges in about 61 per cent of counties, about 39 per cent recorded worsening trends due to poor feeding and childcare practices.
Last week, COG Chair Ahmed Abdullahi cautioned that without urgent intervention, parts of the country could face livestock and human deaths, reminding that pastoralists are yet to recover after losing more than three million animals in the last drought cycle.
“Livestock has started to die, and it’s time we established strategic livestock, feed, and hay reserves so that every drought that occurs does not wipe out our livestock economy,” he said.
Under NDMA’s expanded drought classification, thirteen counties — Samburu, Turkana, Taita Taveta, West Pokot, Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Nyeri, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Makueni, Meru and Lamu — are in the normal drought phase but with a worsening outlook. The bulletin cautions that key livelihood zones in these counties, especially those relying on livestock and water sources, are already under growing stress.
