Two European giants have stamped their passports for North America 2026. Germany and the Netherlands became the latest nations to clinch qualification, leaving the calendar heavy with winner-takes-all drama as the final places get decided this week.
The big picture so far
Already through (34 teams): Hosts Canada, Mexico and the United States; heavyweights Argentina, Brazil, France, England, Portugal; surprise entrants Cape Verde, Jordan and Uzbekistan; and a procession of continental qualifiers from Africa, Asia, Oceania and South America.
Still up for grabs: 14 World Cup berths remain, with several groups and decisive finals in all confederations set to write the last chapters before the March play-offs and November’s closing qualifiers
Tuesday’s high-voltage showdowns
This is qualifier football at its purest — two straight knockout-style scenarios where only victory will do.
Scotland v Denmark: A home win sends Scotland to the World Cup; anything else hands the Danes the ticket.
Austria v Bosnia-Herzegovina: Winner claims the group crown and a place in 2026; a draw still suits Austria.
Elsewhere, Wales chase a sliver of hope: they must beat North Macedonia and then pray Belgium falter against Liechtenstein to finish top of Group J.
Near-certainties and last-gasp permutations
Spain and Switzerland sit on the brink — both will qualify barring unlikely defeats and dramatic goal-difference swings.
Belgium can clinch their spot with a routine win over goal-shy Liechtenstein; their shock draw with Kazakhstan makes the finish nervy.
Play-off chessboard: Europe’s runners-up and top Nations League holdouts will sort four extra places via March’s Uefa play-offs. South America’s seventh spot heads to intercontinental play-offs, and Asia, Africa and Concacaf all have their own play-off pathways still in motion.
Confed-by-confed snapshot
Europe: 16 places total; 7 already sealed. Tight group finales and March play-offs remain the pathway for the rest.
South America: Six direct spots; Bolivia grabbed the intercontinental play-off slot with a dramatic finale.
Asia: Eight direct qualifiers secured; one more through intercontinental play-offs after regional deciders.
Africa: Nine group winners already through; DR Congo won the extra continental play-off to reach the intercontinental route.
Concacaf: Three hosts auto-qualified; multiple groups now decide the remaining regional qualifiers and play-off contenders.
Oceania: New Zealand booked the solitary direct berth in emphatic fashion; New Caledonia heads to the intercontinental play-offs.
What to watch next
Final group fixtures this week — tiny margins, massive stakes.
March 2026 play-offs — the last chokepoints before the roster is set.
Intercontinental play-offs — a wild-card theatre where continents collide and two more places will be fought for.
The road to 2026 has become a mix of inevitability and edge-of-seat theatre: established powers locking in legacy spots, new nations making history, and a final sprint that will hand the remaining 14 tickets to those who can handle pressure when the lights are at their brightest.
