Kenya’s sugar sector is grappling with a deep supply strain as dwindling stocks of mature cane continue to weigh down factory output, cutting production by nearly a quarter in the first eight months of 2025.
New government data shows the industry was unable to sustain last year’s pace, prompting an import surge to maintain supplies and keep consumer prices steady.
Figures from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics indicate sugar mills produced 406,807 tonnes between January and August, compared with 541,681 tonnes in a similar period in 2024.
This decline of 24.89 per cent has been linked to a lack of fully grown cane after farmers and processors harvested ahead of schedule in previous cycles and scaled back planting, leaving plantations struggling to regenerate.
The strain on cane supply led to a decision by the Kenya Sugar Board to suspend operations in key western sugar zones beginning mid-July. The shutdown, which will run for three months from July 14, halted milling at Mumias, Butali and West Kenya in Kakamega, Nzoia and Naitiri in Bungoma, and Busia Sugar Industry together with Olepito in Busia.
The move followed concerns of fresh-cutting younger cane crops as early as 10 to 13 months old, far below the usual 16 to 18 months required for proper juice and sugar build-up.
With mills paused and output shrinking, the government turned to duty-free imports to cushion the market. Data from KNBS shows that output slumped to 32,760 tonnes in May before recovering slightly to 40,800 tonnes by August.
Cane arrivals also weakened, slipping from 501,604 tonnes in July to 465,981 tonnes the following month as supply continued to thin.
“Cumulatively, a total of 4.58 million tonnes was delivered in the first eight months of 2025, compared to 6.3 million tonnes over the same period in 2024,” KNBS stated.
Beyond sugar, the bureau reported a sharp rise in the country’s import bill in the second quarter, driven by industrial goods and food commodities.
“The growth was primarily driven by an increase in imports of industrial machinery (18 per cent), iron and steel (84 per cent), sugars, molasses, and honey (56.9 per cent), and road motor vehicles (38 per cent),” KNBS said.
“During the quarter under review, imports from Africa expanded to Sh73.4 billion, reflecting an increase of 18.9 per cent from the second quarter of 2024. The rise in import bill was partly due to increased imports of sugar from Uganda, essential oils from Eswatini, and iron and steel from South Africa.”
