Kenya is expected to experience near-average to above-average rainfall in several regions during the March–April–May (MAM) 2026 long rains season, according to the 12th National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF12) statement released by the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD).
In its technical outlook issued on February 4, the department said areas projected to receive near-average to above-average rainfall include the Lake Victoria Basin, the Highlands West and East of the Rift Valley, the Rift Valley, and parts of north-western Kenya.
However, below-average rainfall is forecast for the Coast, while near-average to below-average rainfall is expected in the south-eastern lowlands and parts of north-eastern Kenya.
“The climate outlook for the March–April–May (MAM) 2026 season indicates that near-average to above-average rainfall is expected over the Lake Victoria Basin, the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Highlands East of the Rift Valley (including Nairobi), the Rift Valley, and parts of North-western Kenya,” the statement said.
Despite the generally favorable rainfall outlook for much of the country, KMD warned that the season is likely to be characterized by a normal to late onset and intermittent dry spells, with uneven temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall.
Occasional heavy rainfall events are expected in several regions, including areas forecast to receive below-average totals.
According to the department, the peak of the long rains is expected in April across most parts of Kenya, except the Coast, where peak rainfall is anticipated in May.
The Coast region, including Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale and Lamu counties, is projected to experience depressed rainfall overall, though isolated heavy rainfall events may still occur.
KMD also forecast warmer-than-average temperatures across the entire country during the MAM 2026 season, with higher probabilities over the Lake Victoria Basin, the Coast, the south-eastern lowlands and parts of north-eastern Kenya.
Acting Director of the Kenya Meteorological Department Edward Muriuki urged stakeholders to rely on continuous updates as the season approaches, noting that large-scale seasonal forecasts have limitations.
“It is therefore imperative to stay up to date with subsequent forecasts and updates,” the statement said.
The department said the outlook should be used alongside daily, weekly and monthly forecasts to support planning and decision-making across climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, water, health and disaster risk management.
