A week of intense rainfall is expected to pound many parts of the country after the Kenya Meteorological Department warned that widespread showers could trigger floods and disrupt daily activities.
In its latest advisory, the department said areas across western, central and coastal regions should prepare for rainfall amounts surpassing 20 millimetres within 24 hours between March 3 and March 9, 2026.
The forecast shows that the showers will range from moderate to heavy, with the probability of occurrence estimated at between 33 and 66 per cent. Weather experts indicated that the downpours are likely to grow stronger as the week progresses, reaching their highest levels from March 4 to March 7 before easing in most areas.
“The rainfall is likely to intensify and peak between March 4 and 7, 2026, before decreasing in most areas by March 8, 2026,” Kenya Met said.
Although a general reduction is expected after March 8, some regions will continue recording heavy rainfall above 20mm in 24 hours through March 9. These include the Lake Victoria Basin, Western Kenya, sections of the Central Highlands, the Southeastern lowlands and the Coastal belt.
Among the counties projected to receive substantial rainfall are Turkana, Samburu, Migori, Nyamira, Bungoma, Busia, Kakamega, Vihiga, West Pokot, Baringo, Elgeyo Marakwet, Trans Nzoia, Nandi, Uasin Gishu, Nakuru, Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Kisii, Kericho, Bomet, Kiambu, Embu, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Nyandarua and Nyeri.
Laikipia, Tharaka-Nithi, Meru, Nairobi, Narok, Kajiado, Makueni, Machakos, Taita-Taveta, Kitui, Kwale, Mombasa, Tana River, Kilifi, Isiolo, Marsabit, Garissa and parts of Wajir and Mandera have also been listed as vulnerable to the heavy showers.
The department appealed to residents in the affected counties to stay alert, warning that flash floods, overflowing rivers and reduced visibility could pose danger. It stressed that floodwaters may appear even in locations that have not recorded heavy rainfall, especially in lower areas downstream.
“People are advised to avoid driving through or walking in moving water or open fields and not to shelter under trees and near grilled windows to minimise exposure to lightning strikes. Updates will be provided promptly if there are any changes,” the weatherman said.
At the same time, the agency confirmed that this year’s long rains have set in earlier than usual in several regions. Farmers have been encouraged to begin planting in order to benefit from the current wet conditions.
The department explained that the criteria used to confirm the start of the long rains — at least 20 millimetres of rainfall over three consecutive days without a dry spell of more than seven days — were achieved from mid-February in western, central and highland areas. Nairobi, the Lake Victoria Basin and the highlands west of the Rift Valley are among the regions where the threshold has been met.
Meteorologists linked the early rainfall to favourable weather systems, including active conditions related to the Madden–Julian Oscillation, which has temporarily enhanced moisture flow and rainfall in several parts of the country.
However, they cautioned that the system is expected to shift from mid-March to phases that are less supportive of rainfall. This change could lead to reduced showers and a higher chance of dry spells in some areas as the month progresses.
