The Kenya Meteorological Department has forecast near- to above-average rainfall across key regions in April 2026, with heavier downpours expected toward the end of the month after an initially drier start.
Authorities are warning of renewed flooding risks, potential crop losses, and infrastructure disruptions following March’s severe storms, which recorded extreme rainfall including 160mm in 24 hours in Nairobi.
In its latest monthly outlook, the department says rainfall “is likely to be slightly depressed during the first half of the month over much of the country but it's likely to be enhanced towards the end of the month.”
Near-average rainfall is expected in the Highlands East and West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin and parts of north-western Kenya, while above-average rainfall is forecast for parts of the North-eastern region.
However, the South-eastern Lowlands and the Coast are likely to receive near- to below-average rainfall.
The agency attributes the seasonal rains to the northward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which drives the convergence of moist air masses over East Africa.
“This shift creates a zone of rising air… and draws in warm, moist winds from the Indian Ocean and the Congo Air-mass,” the report states.
The outlook comes against the backdrop of a particularly intense March. According to the department, “rainfall exceeding 100 mm in twenty-four hours was often recorded,” with Wilson Airport in Nairobi registering 160mm in just one day.
Makueni County recorded some of the highest totals, with Kitaingo station receiving 587.6mm.
With April marking the peak of the long rains season, the department has warned of “isolated heavy rainfall events” that could trigger flooding, especially in areas already affected last month.
Water agencies have been advised to maintain “round-the-clock monitoring of river levels and clear clogged drainage,” while communities in flood-prone areas are urged to avoid riverbanks.
Farmers have also been cautioned about possible waterlogging and soil erosion. The report notes that average to above-average rainfall “may result in waterlogging and crop losses,” urging the adoption of soil conservation measures such as contouring and mulching.
Transport and health sectors have also been put on alert, with warnings that heavy rains could cause road washouts and disrupt access to essential services. Authorities are calling for early preparedness as the country heads into the peak of the rainy season.
