The Kenya Meteorological Department has flagged a higher malaria outbreak risk in Nandi County, with a 30% probability between May and June 2026.
The forecast released on May 2,2026 shows a lower risk in Kakamega County at 22.7% and minimal risk in Kisii County at 0%. Health authorities say the projections, based on climate data and modelling, will guide preparedness efforts as monitoring continues.
According to the Malaria Epidemic Early Warning Prediction System issued by the Kenya Meteorological Department in collaboration with the Ministry of Health and the Kenya Medical Research Institute, the outlook is based on observed weather patterns in April 2026.
The bulletin notes that “the additive model percentage risk is 30%” for Nandi, placing it above the epidemic threshold level of 20% and signalling a heightened likelihood of an outbreak.
In Kakamega, the situation is less severe, with the model indicating “a low risk of Malaria Epidemic… in the months of May and June 2026.” The report attributes this to shifting climate conditions, including a rise in average maximum temperatures from 27.7°C in March to 28.6°C in April, alongside a drop in rainfall from 339.8mm to 250.0mm. Despite these changes, the risk remains below the 30% epidemic threshold.
For Kisii, the outlook is even more reassuring. The model shows “a lower risk of malaria epidemic… with a model output risk of 0%,” well below the county’s 20% threshold. This follows a slight decline in temperatures and a significant reduction in rainfall between March and April.
Experts say such variations highlight the complex relationship between climate and malaria transmission, with temperature and rainfall playing a critical role in mosquito breeding and disease spread.
The report cautions that “malaria transmission dynamics are influenced by numerous factors, including temperature, rainfall, and human behaviour,” underscoring the need for vigilance.
While the projections provide an early warning, authorities stress they are not definitive.
“This bulletin is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be used as the sole basis for public health decisions,” the report states, urging consultation with local health officials for targeted interventions.