Former Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Kipruto Arap Kirwa has warned that the opposition risks handing President William Ruto another five-year term if it heads into the 2027 General Election while divided, saying the ongoing Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election has exposed the dangers of competing against each other instead of presenting a united front.
Speaking during a Radio Generation interview on Thursday, Kirwa said the mini-poll is providing an early picture of the changing political mood in the Mt Kenya region, but cautioned against treating its outcome as a direct prediction of the next presidential election.
He said a victory for the Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) would strengthen the party's standing in the region, but would not automatically mean President Ruto is destined to lose in 2027.
"You cannot just write off a sitting president. I know he has a lot of challenges, but you cannot say with certainty that this is going to happen. If he loses, it may not necessarily mean that he is going to lose the next election. But it will be an indicator that he has sufficiently lost the ground in areas where DCP controls," Kirwa stated.
Kirwa said by-elections are different from general elections because governments usually commit more political resources to protect seats they already hold.
"By-elections are very uncertain. Most ministers are usually there because they have to protect their regime. The government has a latitude and monopoly of money, power and violence during a by-election, but the goodies delivered in one constituency cannot be replicated across the entire country during a general election," he added.
The veteran politician, who represented Cherangany Constituency for nearly 20 years after first winning a by-election in 1990, served as Agriculture Minister in President Mwai Kibaki's administration between 2003 and 2008 before later becoming the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Special Envoy to Somalia.
Since the 2022 General Election, Kirwa has become one of the opposition figures aligned with Eugene Wamalwa's DAP-Kenya, where he has repeatedly called on opposition parties to work together ahead of the 2027 General Election.
His remarks come as voting continues in the Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election, where 73,480 registered voters are casting their ballots at 144 polling stations to elect a new MP following the death of three-term legislator David Kiaraho on March 29, 2026.
Nine candidates are in the race, although the contest has narrowed to a battle between UDA's Samuel Muchina Nyagah, DCP's Sammy Kamau Ngotho and Jubilee's George Gachagua.
Other candidates are from the People's Renaissance Movement, Safina, National Liberal Party, Independent Movement, Chama Cha Kazi and an independent ticket.
Kirwa said the by-election has also laid bare cracks within the opposition after Jubilee and DCP backed separate candidates despite earlier plans by the United Alternative Government coalition to field one candidate through a joint selection process.
He warned that the split could hand UDA an advantage in a constituency that has traditionally supported Jubilee.
"Collectively Jubilee and DCP are stronger. The strength of Jubilee will undermine the capacity of DCP to win that seat because if you eat into the anti-UDA bloc, then you are allowing UDA to come up," he stated.
According to Kirwa, Kenya's political history shows that divided opposition parties often end up benefiting the party in power.
"The opposition had almost 60 percent, but they divided the votes while President Moi won with about 34 per cent. If we are not careful, we'll play the same script. People don't learn from history."
He said he had personally experienced the effects of a divided political alliance, arguing that parties pursuing separate interests weaken their collective strength.
"If we go on separate ways, DAP-K, DCP and Jubilee will each field candidates and lose support. But if we go under one coalition political party, starting with the presidential candidate, then in places like Nairobi, Mombasa, Nakuru and even Trans Nzoia we are likely not to have this attrition process of cannibalising ourselves," he said.
Kirwa said the opposition should first focus on building one coalition before deciding who will fly its presidential flag, maintaining that unity offers the best chance of mounting a strong challenge against the Kenya Kwanza administration in the 2027 General Election.