Netanyahu faces major political test as Israelis head to polls

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing a major challenge to his political future as voters head to the polls on Tuesday in an election dominated by security concerns, the economy and accountability over the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks.

Netanyahu, who has led Israel for nearly 19 of the past 30 years, is seeking another term amid growing criticism of his government's handling of the attacks and the subsequent wars on multiple fronts.

His strongest challenger is former Israel Defence Forces Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, whose campaign has focused on government accountability, military conscription and Israel's future security.

The election is the first nationwide vote since the Hamas-led attacks, which killed 1,195 people and saw 251 others taken hostage into Gaza. The assault triggered a prolonged conflict that has deeply affected Israeli society.

Netanyahu's critics accuse him of failing to prevent the attacks and avoiding responsibility for intelligence and security lapses. They have also called for an independent commission of inquiry, a demand the prime minister has opposed.

Political analyst Dahlia Sheindlin said the election had become a referendum on Netanyahu's leadership following the attacks.

“For his supporters, he is the strong prime minister who fought back and was able to expand the war to other fronts to defend Israel,” she said.

“And to his detractors or critics, people supporting parties of the opposition, he’s the prime minister who led to the failures of the government to detect or prevent Oct. 7 and has refused to take accountability for it.”

Netanyahu has defended his handling of the war, despite mounting international criticism over Israel's military operations in Gaza. Palestinian health authorities put the death toll from the conflict at about 74,500. The International Criminal Court has also issued an arrest warrant for Netanyahu over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity, accusations he has rejected.

Beyond the war, the election has brought renewed attention to the long-running debate over exemptions from compulsory military service for ultra-Orthodox Jewish men. Critics argue that the exemptions place an unfair burden on other Israelis who are required to serve.

The cost of living, healthcare, education, transport and crime are also key concerns, particularly among younger voters struggling with rising prices despite Israel's strong technology sector.

Palestinian citizens of Israel, who make up about 20 per cent of the population, are expected to focus on issues including organised crime in their communities and Israel's policies towards Palestinians in Gaza and the occupied West Bank. Most Palestinians living in those territories are not Israeli citizens and cannot vote in the election.

Opinion polls suggest a closely contested race between Netanyahu's Likud party and Eisenkot's Yashar party. A recent poll by Israeli news outlet Walla projected Yashar to win 23 seats in the 120-member Knesset, compared with 19 for Likud.

An alliance called B’Yachad, formed by two former centre-right prime ministers, was projected to secure 14 seats, while the Democrats were forecast to win nine. Several smaller right-wing, religious and Arab-led parties are also competing for parliamentary representation.

No single party is expected to secure an outright majority, meaning the next government will likely depend on negotiations among parties to assemble a governing coalition.

More than 7.3 million Israeli citizens are eligible to vote, with at least 35 parties contesting the election. Polling stations are scheduled to open at 7 a.m. and close at 10 p.m., with exit polls expected after voting ends.

Parties must secure at least 3.25 per cent of the national vote to enter parliament. Official results are expected to be published within eight days, although preliminary seat projections should emerge earlier.

The outcome will determine whether Netanyahu can extend his lengthy political career or whether his opponents can assemble a coalition to replace him.