Recent deadly floods in Nairobi highlight the city’s vulnerability to extreme weather, driven by weak planning, fragile ecosystems, and rapid population growth, says urban specialist Patrick Silili Adolwa.
Speaking on Radio Generation on Thursday, Adolwa said human settlements in high-risk areas, combined with poor enforcement of municipal planning regulations, have amplified the impact of heavy rains, putting thousands of lives and property at risk.
“The tragic loss of life across Nairobi and other parts of the country could have been avoided,” he said, noting that specialists and ordinary citizens have repeatedly raised concerns about the city’s susceptibility to flooding.
Adolwa explained that excessive rainfall, worsened by climate change, interacts with densely populated areas in fragile ecosystems, creating devastating effects. He noted that Nairobi’s population has jumped from 4,397,073 in the 2019 census to over 4.8 million today, placing enormous pressure on infrastructure, natural drainage systems, and urban management practices.
“Any territory can flood,” he said, “even rural areas experience floods, but here, human settlements are in fragile ecosystems, increasing exposure and risk.”
Heavy rains that began in early March as part of Kenya’s long rains season overwhelmed drainage systems across the capital and other regions, causing rivers to overflow, submerging roads, damaging infrastructure, and claiming many lives.
According to the latest official update from the Ministry of Interior and National Administration, the death toll from the recent floods caused by heavy rains across Kenya has risen to 50 people, with nine still reported missing with Nairobi recording the highest number of fatalities and thousands displaced as rescue and recovery efforts continue.
These fatalities have been recorded nationwide, including many in Nairobi and other affected counties.
Vehicles were swept away, roads became impassable, and multi-agency rescue operations, including the Kenya Defence Forces and Kenya Red Cross, were mobilised to evacuate residents and recover victims. Authorities urged people to avoid flooded roads and exercise caution, as rainfall is expected to continue.
The national government has pledged support for affected families, covering hospital and burial expenses, while directing sub-counties to establish emergency response centres and public information desks to coordinate relief amid warnings from the Kenya Meteorological Department.
Despite the destruction, earlier reports had already flagged weaknesses in Kenya’s disaster preparedness. A 2023 Auditor-General’s report noted gaps in coordination, early-warning systems, and a unified legal framework for disaster management—issues that remained largely unaddressed prior to the 2026 floods.
At the county level, Nairobi City County has waived levies for property repairs to speed up recovery. Governor Johnson Sakaja has acknowledged that a major investment, estimated at Sh40 billion or more, is needed to improve drainage, protect riparian areas, and strengthen flood resilience infrastructure.
Tracing Nairobi’s challenges to its historical growth, Adolwa said the city began in 1895 as a small railway station and became a municipality in 1954, when urban planning reflected a much smaller population and local topography. Over the decades, rapid growth and urbanization have pushed settlements into high-risk areas such as floodplains, straining limited land and infrastructure.
Fragile ecosystems, including hilly slopes and low-lying basins, are naturally vulnerable, and unplanned human settlements disrupt natural drainage, heightening flood risks. Climate change has worsened the situation, with rainfall in Nairobi increasing by roughly 50 percent between 1984 and 2016.
Despite the availability of extensive spatial data, hydrological records, and geological information, Adolwa said poor governance has prevented effective planning. “We have the data and the skills, but the challenge is implementation,” he said, pointing to weak municipal governance, limited planning budgets, and political priorities that favor rapid revenue collection over ecosystem protection.
He criticized Nairobi’s municipal structure, noting that local municipalities, which were meant to operate semi-autonomously, now function as extensions of the county government, limiting their financial independence, operational freedom, and ability to enforce planning regulations.
“The failure to map and manage urban territory effectively has resulted in poorly coordinated settlements, inadequate drainage systems, and increased vulnerability to climate hazards,” Adolwa said.
He emphasized the role of leadership in building urban resilience. “If you do not plan in floodplains or protect fragile ecosystems, and you allow settlements to develop haphazardly, the risks increase,” he said, calling for stronger governance, better coordination, and planning that prioritizes human safety and ecosystem stability.
Adolwa urged city leaders to adopt practical strategies for land use, drainage management, and municipal oversight, warning that without action, Nairobi will remain highly exposed to extreme weather events and recurring disasters.
