Kenya is facing a fresh spell of rainfall, with 24 counties expected to receive showers over the next 24 hours as weather officials warn of possible flooding, strong winds and disruption during the October-December rainy season.
The Kenya Meteorological Service said in an update issued on Thursday that rain was expected in parts of western Kenya, the Rift Valley, the Coast, central Kenya and the northeastern region, signalling the spread of the short rains across the country.
The areas listed in the forecast include West Pokot, Siaya, Elgeyo Marakwet, Bungoma, Kakamega, Nakuru, Trans Nzoia, Kericho, Kisii, Homa Bay, Kisumu, Mandera, Wajir, Marsabit, Nyandarua, Meru, Nyeri, Embu, Kirinyaga, Tharaka Nithi, Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi and Lamu.
The department also expects strong southerly to southeasterly winds in parts of Turkana, Samburu and Marsabit counties, with speeds likely to exceed 25 knots, or 12.5 metres per second.
The advisory comes as Kenya settles into the October-December short rains season, which the weather service recently confirmed had begun. In its earlier forecast, the department projected light to moderate rainfall in parts of all 47 counties.
Weather officials say conditions during the season will depend on several climate factors, among them the Indian Ocean Dipole, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and other weather systems that influence rainfall patterns across the region.
The latest warning follows an earlier forecast that El Niño-related rains would reach more parts of Kenya during October. By October 5, rainfall had begun in parts of 24 counties, while other areas were expected to experience showers in the following weeks.
For farmers, the anticipated rainfall could provide a boost at the start of the planting season by improving moisture levels in the soil and supporting crop growth. Livestock keepers could also benefit from renewed pasture and improved access to water.
The Met, however, has cautioned that the benefits could be accompanied by serious challenges if rainfall becomes excessive. Flooding, waterlogged farms, crop diseases and interruptions to agricultural work and transport are among the possible effects.
Parts of the Coast and northeastern Kenya are particularly likely to experience heavy rainfall during the season, according to the department's outlook.
People living in low-lying areas and near rivers have been urged to remain cautious because rising water levels could expose homes and property to flooding. The warning comes as the country prepares for a season in which rainfall could vary in intensity and distribution from one area to another.
The concerns extend beyond Kenya, with the World Meteorological Organisation projecting wetter-than-normal conditions across the Greater Horn of Africa during the final quarter of 2026.
The organisation has warned that El Niño is strengthening, raising the likelihood of above-average rainfall across parts of the region between October and December. The period is particularly important for Kenya and neighbouring countries because it contributes a substantial share of annual rainfall in some areas.
In its assessment, the WMO noted that increased rainfall could replenish water sources and improve grazing conditions. At the same time, excessive rain could trigger floods, destroy crops, damage infrastructure and interfere with health and nutrition services.
On Thursday, the organisation said its latest seasonal outlook indicated that El Niño was continuing to intensify, with the climate phenomenon expected to reach its peak in December.
The projection adds to concerns over the possible effects of heavy rainfall on communities, farms and public infrastructure across the region. Authorities are therefore preparing for the possibility that some areas could experience more severe weather conditions during the season.
In Kenya, the government has activated a national response plan to manage potential emergencies linked to the expected rains.
Search-and-rescue teams have been placed on standby, while evacuation centres and emergency supplies are being prepared to support people who may be affected by flooding and other weather-related incidents.
The preparations are intended to help authorities respond quickly if heavy rainfall leads to rising rivers, flooded settlements or damage to essential services.
Residents, particularly those in areas identified as vulnerable to flooding, are encouraged to monitor official weather advisories and take precautions as the rainy season progresses.