ODM’s leadership could have taken a different path after Raila Odinga’s death had Ida Odinga been chosen to steer the party, according to political analyst Herman Manyora, who believes her leadership would have faced fewer challenges than that of Siaya Senator Oburu Odinga.
Speaking on his daily political analysis podcast on Friday, August 14, 2026, Manyora said Ida would have had a better chance of keeping ODM together at a time when the party is facing internal disagreements and changes in its leadership.
The analyst also brought Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna into the debate, arguing that his relationship with the party could have been different under Ida.
Manyora suggested that Sifuna would probably not have broken away from ODM if Ida had taken charge, saying their relationship would not have developed into the kind of disagreement he has had with Oburu.
“If Ida could have taken over ODM, it could be strong. Nobody could have complained. Sifuna would have gone against Ida? There is nobody in this country who could have gone against the party,” Manyora said.
He further questioned the strength of ODM under its present leadership, saying the party is now deeply divided and no longer commands the political force it had during Raila’s lifetime.
Manyora also raised doubts about Oburu’s chances of retaining his Siaya Senate seat, saying the contest would have been far easier for him had Raila remained alive.
His comments add to the growing debate over the direction of ODM following Raila’s death, with several senior political figures offering different views on the party’s leadership and its future.
Manyora’s remarks came shortly after former Agriculture Minister Kipruto arap Kirwa also questioned Oburu’s place in Raila’s political succession.
Kirwa argued that Sifuna had carried more of Raila’s political spirit than Oburu, despite the latter being the former Prime Minister’s brother and a long-time political associate.
“I don’t think even Oburu supported Raila fully. He just pretended to survive, and the spirit of the late Raila Odinga is with Sifuna,” Kirwa stated.
Kirwa also drew a comparison between Oburu and his father, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, saying that while Oburu resembles the former vice president, he did not inherit the political qualities that made Jaramogi a major force in Kenyan politics.
He said Raila was the family member who largely stepped into Jaramogi’s political role and continued his influence after his death.
Siaya Governor James Orengo has also weighed in on Oburu’s role, arguing that the senator had for years operated away from the centre of major political decisions.
Orengo said he, Raila and other senior politicians were among those who regularly engaged Jaramogi directly, placing them in a better position to continue his political work.
He also cited Oburu’s book, In the Shadows of My Father, saying its title reflected his view that the Siaya senator had largely remained in the background during key political moments.
Oburu has since taken a leading role in ODM following Raila’s death, as the party deals with internal divisions and seeks to define its political direction ahead of the 2027 General Election.