Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua may not have a realistic path to State House in the 2027 General Election, but his growing political influence could place him at the centre of deciding who eventually forms the next government, political risk analyst Dismas Mokua has said.
Speaking during a Radio Generation interview on Thursday, Mokua argued that Gachagua has steadily built political influence through the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP), particularly in the Mt Kenya region, positioning himself as a key player whose support could shape the outcome of the next presidential contest.
"The probability of him becoming President is almost zero. You are not going to lose any bet if you say that. However, the probability of him influencing who becomes President is very high and, in my view, he has filled the vacuum after the exit of Raila Odinga. He now wants to take up that place and may end up being the kingmaker," the analyst stated.
According to Mokua, Gachagua has tightened his grip on Mt Kenya politics through DCP, making it increasingly difficult for politicians from rival parties to compete in the region.
"If you go to Mt Kenya like I did a few days ago, he has managed effortlessly to frustrate multiparty democracy within the region. If you want to run for political office today and you are not in DCP and you are not dancing to his drumbeats, he is going to brand you a traitor. Kenya is built on divergent positions. When everybody is aligned in the same space, thinking in the same line, then you are talking about something like North Korea. In multiparty democracies, you are supposed to convince people using the power of your ideas, not threats, intimidation or blackmail."
Mokua pointed to the recent Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election as one of the clearest signs of Gachagua's growing political weight, saying the former Deputy President managed to reap political benefits despite taking a back seat during the campaign.
"He was expected to campaign in Ol Kalou but delegated others to do it. The DCP candidate won, and afterwards he took a victory lap. Right now there is what people are calling the 'Ol Kalou factor.' You may not like him or even hate him, but you have to give him credit. When it comes to converting his tribulations into political capital, he has done a very good job. He was handed a lemon in the name of impeachment and has converted it into lemonade."
His remarks come as Gachagua pushes to transform DCP into a national political party ahead of the 2027 General Election.
Following the party's commanding victory in the Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election, where its candidate secured 35,440 votes against UDA's 5,450, Gachagua has announced plans to field candidates in all 47 counties.
He has set a target of electing at least 20 governors, 20 senators, 145 Members of Parliament and 720 Members of County Assembly, saying the party is laying the groundwork for a nationwide political movement.
Mokua said many political observers see the Ol Kalou result as a major boost for Gachagua and a sign that DCP is expanding its political influence beyond its early stages.
The analyst also questioned Jubilee Party's limited role in the by-election despite the seat becoming vacant after the death of one of its legislators.
He said the contest presented an opportunity for the party to test its political strength and for former President Uhuru Kenyatta and former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang'i to publicly demonstrate their political influence.
According to Mokua, their quiet approach has raised fresh questions about Jubilee's political direction as preparations for the 2027 General Election gather pace.
He also dismissed speculation surrounding the recent meeting between Matiang'i and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, saying such engagements are expected as political leaders begin positioning themselves ahead of the elections.
Mokua added that he does not expect opposition leaders to rally behind a single presidential candidate, arguing that competing interests, differing political positions and individual ambitions are likely to stand in the way of a united front.