Kenya is staring at a major grain shortage that could force the country to import nearly five million tonnes of maize and wheat after a prolonged dry spell destroyed large sections of crops in the main grain-producing regions.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has warned that the country could face a maize shortfall of 2.2 million tonnes this year, pushing the required imports to a record 2.3 million tonnes to keep households, millers and animal feed manufacturers supplied.
The situation is also worsening on the wheat front, with the agency cutting its forecast for Kenya’s 2026/2027 marketing year, which began in July, by 150,000 tonnes.
USDA now expects Kenya to produce only 130,000 tonnes of wheat, down from its earlier estimate of 280,000 tonnes. The sharp reduction follows an extended period of dry weather in major wheat-producing counties in the Rift Valley.
The lower harvest means the country may have to bring in about 2.6 million tonnes of wheat to meet the expected gap.
USDA has also reduced its estimate of land that will be harvested for wheat from 100,000 hectares to 70,000 hectares after the harsh weather damaged crops.
The maize situation is equally worrying, with the agency saying Kenya's traditional regional suppliers may not be able to provide enough grain to cover the shortfall because several neighbouring countries are also dealing with poor agricultural conditions.
Although the government has announced plans to import maize, USDA says it is still unclear where the grain will come from.
"Regional suppliers have also been impacted by unusual weather in this growing season. Adverse weather in eastern Uganda depressed domestic output, while Tanzania forecasts a significantly tighter exportable surplus of only 800,000 tonnes" the agency says in a report dated August 28, 2026.
Zambia, however, has recorded a different outcome after posting a strong harvest in its 2026/27 crop marketing season.
"Conversely, Zambia achieved a historic bumper harvest in its 2026/27 crop marketing season. Their current food balance sheet suggests a net exportable corn surplus of around 1.47 million metric tonnes. However, actual export volumes may be curtailed or restricted due to the looming El Niño conditions and lower production expectations for the subsequent cycle."
USDA estimates that Kenya will consume about 4.5 million tonnes of maize during the 2026/2027 marketing period.
The agency warned that the shortage could hit the animal feed industry hard, as the sector already faces regular supply gaps. It also cautioned that millers could struggle to remain operational if the expected maize imports do not arrive.
"The corn pressure is intensified due to the depleted strategic reserves. Local corn prices have already surged past Sh50,000 ($387.60) per tonne at local buying centres. With Kenya's long-standing ban on genetically modified products, the feed industry may need to revert to alternatives, like lower-cost, non-GMO sorghum, the agency says.
The latest grain crisis has been linked to an unexpected dry spell that affected the western half of Kenya from early June to late July 2026.
The dry weather damaged large parts of maize and wheat fields that would normally have been ready for harvest in November 2026.
According to USDA, farmers had increased the area planted with crops following good performance in the previous season and government support. However, the gains were hit after early rains were followed by a long period without enough rainfall during key stages of crop growth in June and July.
"The result of this unusual weather was widespread wilting and stunting of corn and other crops. The mid-season dry spell caused unprecedented damage across Kenya's primary grain basket counties" it says. "Based on satellite weather observations from June through July and in-person field visits during the last week of July 2026, FAS Nairobi recommends significant decreases to corn and wheat production estimates across Western Kenya."
The North Rift Valley and Western regions have suffered some of the heaviest losses, with USDA estimating that nearly half of the land planted with crops in the affected areas has been wiped out.
Fields that survived the dry spell are also expected to produce less, with yields projected to fall by as much as 35 per cent.
The crop losses are mainly concentrated in key surplus-producing counties, including Uasin Gishu, Trans Nzoia and Nakuru, raising further concern over the country's ability to secure enough grain from local production.
USDA said the lack of rainfall during the critical crop-growing period was among the worst recorded in decades.
"Throughout much of Kenya's grain-producing regions, rainfall levels in June and July were at some of their lowest levels since 1980. Monthly precipitation across much of the west of the country reached its lowest levels in the last 30 years from early June until the last week of July 2026," USDA says.
"In some cases, precipitation was more than 200 millimetres below normal during June and July. Some rain did begin to fall across the region in the final days of July. By that time, however, crop failures were already widespread."
With domestic production sharply reduced and supplies from some regional markets also under pressure, Kenya is now facing the prospect of relying heavily on imports to bridge the maize and wheat gap and protect supplies to consumers, millers and the animal feed industry.