A fresh wave of global tensions is piling pressure on Kenya's farming sector, with the country now ranked among the world's most exposed to fertiliser supply disruptions.
The latest warning by the World Trade Organisation (WTO) comes as Kenya is already paying more for imported fertiliser, raising fears of a bigger subsidy burden for the government and higher food prices if the supply challenges persist.
The WTO has identified Kenya among 18 economies that face the greatest risk from disruptions affecting nitrogenous fertiliser supplies passing through the Gulf region.
The concern stems from the US-Israel conflict with Iran, which has affected movement through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's busiest shipping routes and a key passage for fertiliser exports.
According to the trade body, countries that depend heavily on fertiliser imported from Gulf suppliers stand to feel the greatest impact whenever shipments through the corridor are interrupted.
"Eighteen economies are particularly exposed to nitrogenous fertiliser supply disruptions in the Gulf. These economies, which constitute around one-fifth of the 81 economies that import from the Gulf region, combine high import dependence with strong reliance on Gulf suppliers," the global trade watchdog says.
"This group includes developing economies in Africa, such as Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Rwanda, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda and Zimbabwe. It also includes Brazil, Nepal and Sri Lanka. Seven countries in this group are least developed countries," it adds.
The alert comes at a time when the cost of fertiliser imports into Kenya has started climbing again after two years of easing prices.
Figures from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) show that the average landed price of chemical fertiliser reached Sh73,747 per tonne during the first quarter of 2026, compared to Sh61,713 per tonne recorded over the same period last year.
The latest increase is the highest recorded since the first quarter of 2023, when global markets were still dealing with supply shortages caused by the war in Ukraine.
The rise also marks a turnaround from the declining prices that had given the government room to strengthen its fertiliser subsidy programme and make the farm input more affordable for growers.
The WTO says nearly 30 percent of fertiliser traded across the world normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz, making any interruption along the route a major concern for countries such as Kenya that rely on imports.
At the same time, Kenya has stepped up purchases of fertiliser from overseas markets to meet demand ahead of the planting season.
KNBS data show the country imported 407,325 tonnes of chemical fertiliser during the first three months of 2026, almost double the 234,917 tonnes imported during the same period in 2025.
Although the larger volumes were meant to support agricultural production, they also exposed the country to higher international prices.
As a result, Kenya spent Sh30.04 billion on fertiliser imports between January and March this year, more than double the Sh14.50 billion spent during the same period last year. The increase was driven by both the higher quantity of imports and rising prices in the global market.
The government has continued using subsidised fertiliser as one of its key measures to support maize farming, strengthen food security and ease pressure on the cost of living.
If prices continue to rise, the State may be forced to increase spending to maintain the subsidy programme or allow farmers to shoulder part of the extra cost. Either outcome could lead to higher food prices if the supply disruptions continue.
Higher subsidy costs would put more pressure on the National Treasury, while costly fertiliser could reduce its use by farmers, affecting harvests and increasing production costs.
The latest figures also reverse the steady fall in fertiliser prices recorded after the global market stabilised following the Ukraine supply crisis.
Average import prices fell from Sh90,807 per tonne during the first quarter of 2022 to Sh67,488 in the first quarter of 2024 before dropping further to Sh61,713 in the first quarter of 2025, bringing relief to both farmers and the government.
The latest rise to almost Sh74,000 per tonne now points to fresh global tensions once again driving up the cost of farm inputs and putting pressure on Kenya's efforts to keep fertiliser within reach of farmers.