Political commentator and political practitioner Andrew Ndola Ndolo has warned that Kenya could face a wider class conflict ahead of the 2027 General Election as economic hardship, political intolerance and ethnic mobilisation continue to grow.
Ndolo said the current political mood was worrying because many young people were becoming frustrated with economic inequality and could begin viewing the country’s political divisions through the gap between the rich and the poor rather than along ethnic lines.
Speaking during an interview with Radio Generation on Monday, he cautioned that Kenya risked going through a pattern similar to the period before the 2007-08 post-election violence, when political competition and ethnic messages contributed to rising tensions across the country.
“We have an even bigger crowd now, and my fear is where we are going. It's not going to be a tribal war. People think it's going to be a tribal war. I beg to differ. It's going to be a class war,” he said.
Ndolo said the conflict could initially appear to be driven by ethnic differences but could eventually become a confrontation between people who feel left behind economically and those they believe have benefited from the system.
“It will start looking like a tribal thing, but it will be those who have being targeted by those who don't have, because they will say you in your black V8 or in your black SUV, you are the reason I'm hungry.”
He said the growing economic frustrations among young people could make them more likely to turn against wealthy individuals, especially if political leaders continue using messages that divide Kenyans into opposing groups.
Ndolo, who was active in politics during the period leading to the 2007 General Election, said his experience gave him a close view of the political alliances, disagreements and ethnic messages that helped raise tensions before the disputed poll.
He recalled that he first contested the Kilome parliamentary seat in a 2001 by-election and later returned to the race during the 2002 General Election. He then followed the political developments that eventually led to the 2007 election and the violence that followed.
According to Ndolo, concerns over the direction of the country grew during that period, particularly following disagreements around a memorandum of understanding between opposition groups and remarks made during political rallies in the Rift Valley.
He said the rising political hostility eventually contributed to the violence that spread across the country after the 2007 presidential election.
Ndolo warned that Kenya could again find itself in a dangerous situation if politicians continue to use ethnic identity and political differences to build support while ordinary citizens are encouraged to confront one another.
He said political leaders often create strong divisions during election campaigns, only to change sides and work together once the elections are over.
“The political class that gets us riled up and taking machetes against the other, then sit and shake hands. But when we are shaking hands, we've buried sons and daughters,” he said.
Ndolo urged young Kenyans to avoid being drawn into violence on behalf of politicians, saying political leaders who present themselves as bitter rivals during campaigns can later become allies.
“The youth need to recognize that this political contest is not enough to die for. Don't take a panga against your neighbor, because by the way, the person you're fighting for is going to sign up and shake hands with the guy who you're opposing. We've seen it before,” Ndolo said.
He also criticised the practice of using ethnic identity to create political “waves”, saying communities can sometimes be persuaded to support leaders based on the belief that they must rally behind a particular political figure.
Ndolo said politicians can also portray people outside their preferred political camp as traitors, creating deeper divisions within communities and making political competition more hostile.
He pointed to the changing political relationships involving KANU, ODM and Jubilee as an example of how alliances can shift with time.
The political practitioner noted that leaders who had previously stood on opposite sides of the political divide later worked together in governments formed with Raila Odinga and Mwai Kibaki after the 2007-08 post-election violence.
He also referred to William Ruto and other leaders who had been associated with KANU, noting that political relationships changed over time and former rivals later found themselves working together.
Ndolo said the history of Kenya's political alliances should serve as a warning to young people who may be tempted to fight others because of political differences.
He maintained that political leaders can reconcile after elections, while citizens who engage in violence are left to deal with the loss of family members, destruction of property and other effects of political conflict.
He warned that the political class must take greater care when using ethnic messages to mobilise voters, particularly at a time when economic frustration among young people is growing.
Ndolo said failure to address the growing anger and political intolerance could create a conflict that goes beyond the ethnic divisions seen during previous election periods.
He urged Kenyans, especially young people, to recognise that political contests should not be allowed to turn neighbours against each other, warning that those being asked to fight today could find themselves facing the same political leaders shaking hands after the election.