The Broad-Based Government is struggling to win over a majority of Kenyans, with a new TIFA Research poll showing that 52% of citizens oppose the political arrangement while only 30% support it.
The survey, conducted between June 13 and 22, 2026, found that opposition to the BBG remained well above support, despite a slight decline from the 56% recorded in May. At the same time, backing for the arrangement stayed unchanged at 30%, suggesting that its support base has remained largely steady.
TIFA released the findings on Wednesday in its second national survey report of 2026. The research focused on public views of the Broad-Based Government formed through political cooperation between President William Ruto and the late former Prime Minister Raila Odinga.
Of those interviewed, 15% said they had no view on the arrangement, while 4% said they were not aware of the cooperation between Ruto and Raila.
The respondents were specifically asked: “If you have an opinion, do you support or oppose the ‘Broad-Based Government’ based on cooperation between President Ruto and the late former Prime Minister Raila Odinga?”
TIFA’s latest tracking figures show that support has remained at 30% in both May and June 2026. This comes after a period of major movement in public opinion, with support rising from 22% in May 2025 to 44% in August before falling back to 30% in November.
Opposition to the BBG has also shifted during the period covered by the tracking data. It stood at 48% in November 2025, climbed to 56% in May 2026 and then dropped four percentage points to 52% in June.
TIFA said the steady support figure could point to a limit in the number of people willing to back the arrangement, particularly as divisions continue within the Orange Democratic Movement over whether to support Ruto’s re-election bid and other related political issues.
“The current level of support is identical to what it was in May (30%), suggesting that the continuing split within ODM over the matter of supporting the President’s re-election bid (and related matters) has appeared to have created a fairly stable ‘ceiling’ as to how much support the BBG can attract,” TIFA said.
The poll further shows that attitudes towards the BBG vary sharply depending on the region.
The Central Rift recorded the highest level of support at 47%, followed by Northern Kenya at 43%. Nyanza came next with 35% support.
In contrast, only 13% of respondents in Mt Kenya said they supported the arrangement. Nairobi recorded 22%, while the South Rift posted 25%.
Support stood at 29% in Western Kenya, 30% in Lower Eastern and 31% at the Coast.
The figures also point to major changes in Western Kenya and Nyanza compared with November 2025. Support in Western dropped from 62% to 29%, while Nyanza saw backing fall from 59% to 35%.
TIFA based its findings on interviews with 2,048 randomly selected adults aged 18 years and above. The interviews were conducted face-to-face in households across all 47 counties.
Most of the interviews were carried out in Swahili, while others were conducted in English. The respondents were drawn from nine zones: Central Rift, Coast, Lower Eastern, Mt Kenya, Nairobi, Northern, Nyanza, South Rift and Western.
The survey has a national margin of error of plus or minus 2.18 percentage points, although TIFA noted that smaller regional samples carry wider margins of error.
The research organisation said the results should be viewed in the context of the period when the interviews took place. It warned that political or other developments during or after the June fieldwork could change public views if the same questions were put to Kenyans at another time.
The survey therefore captures public sentiment towards the BBG during the 10 days when TIFA conducted its fieldwork, with the arrangement drawing support from three in every 10 respondents but facing opposition from more than half of those surveyed.