Political analyst Herman Manyora has warned that President William Ruto could secure a second term in the August 2027 General Election if opposition leaders fail to overcome their differences, agree on a joint presidential candidate and organise a united campaign early.
Manyora believes the opposition's chances of unseating Ruto are being weakened by personal ambitions, greed and alleged attempts by individuals with outside interests to frustrate efforts to bring the leaders together.
Speaking on Radio Generation on Thursday, the political analyst expressed doubts that the opposition would eventually agree on a common political position, despite growing pressure on its leaders to form a united front before the next election.
"They will not unite. They are not going to unite. No way," he said, predicting that Ruto was increasingly well positioned to secure a second term.
Manyora blamed the divisions on what he described as selfish political interests, accusing some leaders of putting their personal ambitions ahead of the broader opposition agenda.
He also claimed that some individuals could be working to derail the coalition from within by acting on behalf of people interested in preventing the formation of a strong opposition alliance.
"If I have sent you there to ensure there is no unity, how will you be part of the unity? You'll do everything possible to disrupt the unity," Manyora said.
He identified three major challenges facing the opposition: politicians allegedly working to serve external interests, leaders who believe postponing a decision on the presidential candidate will improve their individual chances, and those who have failed to appreciate the urgency of organising against Ruto.
The analyst, however, argued that identifying a presidential candidate should not be a difficult undertaking for the opposition. In his view, the real test would come after the candidate is selected, when the leaders must put together a strong campaign capable of defeating the incumbent.
"The one of looking for a candidate is the easiest thing. The task ahead, preparing to beat Ruto after you have that candidate, is where the work begins," he said.
Manyora cautioned that taking too long to settle on a flagbearer could cost the opposition valuable time to organise its campaign and strengthen its candidate's standing across the country.
To illustrate the importance of an early agreement, he pointed to the 2002 General Election, when the late Raila Odinga rallied opposition leaders behind Mwai Kibaki through the famous declaration of "Kibaki Tosha".
Manyora argued that Raila's move helped break the stalemate among opposition politicians who had struggled to agree on a single candidate, creating an opportunity for them to rally behind Kibaki.
He maintained that an early announcement of a joint presidential candidate would give the opposition an opportunity to build the individual's national profile, political influence and support ahead of the polls.
His remarks came a day after former President Uhuru Kenyatta renewed his appeal for opposition leaders to put their differences aside and agree on a common political direction.
Speaking during a memorial service for his cousin, Beatrice Wambui Muturi, at PCEA Nairobi West Church on Wednesday, Uhuru urged opposition figures, including Rigathi Gachagua, Kalonzo Musyoka and Eugene Wamalwa, to reconsider their individual presidential ambitions and prioritise unity.
Uhuru said Kenyans were waiting for the leaders to resolve their disagreements and demonstrate that they were prepared to work together ahead of the next election.
"They [wananchi] only want to see our leaders unite. I only hope they have decided where they are heading. So, with respect, as our leaders, plan yourselves and fulfil what Kenyans want," he said.
The former Head of State further reminded the politicians that the presidency could only be occupied by one person at a time, urging them to cooperate in pursuit of a better and peaceful Kenya.
The renewed calls for unity come as political activity gathers pace ahead of the August 2027 General Election, with opposition leaders facing mounting pressure to settle on a flagbearer, reconcile competing interests and establish an alliance strong enough to challenge Ruto's re-election bid.