President William Ruto has maintained his lead in the latest presidential preference survey by Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA), but the biggest shift in the race has come from Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, who has recorded the fastest growth in support among opposition leaders, overtaking several established contenders as the battle for the 2027 General Election begins to take shape.
The survey released on Friday shows Ruto holding steady at 24 per cent support between May and June 2026, even as the opposition vote remains divided among several leading figures.
Sifuna posted the biggest increase in the latest poll, rising from 10 per cent in May to 15 per cent in June, making him the fastest-growing opposition presidential hopeful during the period under review.
TIFA said Sifuna's rise has been remarkable, considering he had virtually no measurable support less than a year ago.
"From zero per cent in November 2025 to 15 per cent in June 2026, Sifuna is showing steady growth," the pollster said.
The survey further noted that "although opposition support remains fragmented, Sifuna has recorded the fastest rise among opposition figures, increasing from virtually no support in 2025 to 15 per cent in June 2026, positioning him among the leading opposition contenders."
While Sifuna gained support, several of the other leading opposition figures recorded declines in their popularity.
Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka's support fell from 25 per cent in November 2025 to 13 per cent in June 2026. Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang'i, who had topped the survey with 32 per cent in May 2025, also dropped to 14 per cent in the latest poll.
Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua also lost ground, slipping from a high of nine per cent in May 2026 to seven per cent in June.
Embakasi East MP Babu Owino remained largely unchanged at two per cent after reaching a peak of eight per cent in November 2025.
Despite Ruto maintaining his numbers, TIFA said a large number of voters are yet to settle on their preferred presidential candidate.
According to the survey, 20 per cent of respondents said they were undecided, down from 28 per cent in August 2022, but still forming a large voting bloc that could influence the outcome of the 2027 General Election.
The poll also examined support within Kenya's major political parties.
Among ODM supporters, Sifuna emerged as the preferred presidential candidate after attracting 44 per cent support, while 20 per cent backed Ruto and 13 per cent remained undecided.
Within UDA, Ruto continued to enjoy overwhelming backing, with 84 per cent of party supporters saying they preferred him.
Among supporters of the Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP), Gachagua led with 44 per cent support, followed by Kalonzo at 19 per cent and Matiang'i at 15 per cent.
Jubilee supporters remained firmly behind Matiang'i, with 73 per cent naming him as their preferred presidential candidate.
Wiper supporters recorded the highest level of party loyalty, with nine out of every 10 respondents backing Kalonzo.
"UDA, Wiper and Jubilee supporters exhibit stronger party cohesion, with large majorities supporting their respective candidates," Tifa said adding that while ODM supporters appeared more divided despite Sifuna emerging as the party's preferred choice.
The findings come as political parties continue positioning themselves ahead of the 2027 General Election, with succession politics gathering pace across both the ruling coalition and the opposition as leaders seek to strengthen their support before the official campaign period.