Uganda pulls 109 soldiers as Somalia's security transition comes under pressure

Somalia's efforts to take charge of its national security are facing a major test as Uganda begins withdrawing troops from strategic military positions, exposing the challenges facing the country's transition from foreign military protection to self-reliance.

The drawdown, coming against a backdrop of dwindling international funding and political disagreements in Mogadishu, has raised fears that Al-Shabaab could take advantage of weakened security arrangements before Somali forces are ready to defend the areas being vacated.

Uganda has begun pulling its soldiers out of four important locations in southern Somalia under the African Union's planned transfer of security responsibilities. The affected positions are Sabid-Anole, Barire, Awdhegle and Buulo-Gaduud.

Military sources confirmed that 109 Ugandan soldiers had initially departed Mogadishu, although the movement does not mean that Uganda has completely abandoned the four bases or ended its military involvement in Somalia.

The withdrawal marks another critical phase in a security operation that has relied heavily on African Union troops for more than a decade.

Ugandan soldiers have been among the key forces fighting Al-Shabaab, helping protect Mogadishu and maintain control of strategic routes and settlements in southern Somalia.

However, security experts warn that reducing the foreign military presence without ensuring that local forces can effectively fill the gaps could expose previously secured territories to fresh attacks and possible militant advances.

They argue that Somalia's ability to prevent Al-Shabaab from regaining ground will depend on sustained support from international partners, adequate military supplies, dependable transport systems and stronger operational capabilities within its national security forces.

Samira Gaid, founder and director of the Balqlis Insights think-tank, said the withdrawal was particularly concerning because of the strategic importance of the areas surrounding the capital.

"In the short term, the concern is the positions around Mogadishu. Lower Shabelle and the bridge towns are the capital's southern buffer, and Ugandans have held that ground for years," Gaid said.

Despite the concerns, Somali military officials have maintained that the national army is expected to occupy the positions relinquished by foreign troops.

The African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (Ausom) is expected to complete its withdrawal next year, with the mission continuing to hold the affected locations as the transition arrangements are implemented.

Mohamed Ali Barise, chief of staff of the Somali National Army (SNA), said the military had already prepared for the transfer and would assume control of the bases.

"The positions vacated by Ugandan soldiers will be handed over to the SNA, and this plan was established well in advance. Apparently, foreign forces were initially deployed to Somalia to support the national army for a limited period," Barise said.

However, the country's security transition is being complicated by a shortage of funds, with international donors struggling with budget pressures and reducing their contributions to Ausom.

The reduced financial backing has forced the mission to fast-track plans for transferring security duties to Somali forces while dealing with growing difficulties in sustaining its own operations.

The funding crisis has also moved beyond delayed payments of soldiers' stipends, with logistical challenges increasingly affecting the mission's ability to supply forward operating bases, maintain transport services and conduct regular patrols.

These difficulties have raised concerns about whether the African Union mission can maintain its military presence and provide the necessary support to Somali troops until the handover is completed.

Gaid said the financial challenges had existed for some time but had evolved into a more serious problem affecting the mission's day-to-day operations.

"The money problem was already there. Initially, it was about stipends; now it has to do with logistics. Ausom has never had secure funding, and the gap was already shaping operational decisions," Gaid said.

"Without logistics, it is unclear if the mission can actually survive. The decision by Uganda signals that."

The planned December 2027 deadline for the complete departure of foreign peacekeepers has added urgency to Somalia's preparations, with questions emerging over whether its military can develop enough capacity and secure the resources required to take over before the deadline.

According to Gaid, the entire transition plan was built around two key expectations.

The first was that Somali security forces would progressively strengthen their capabilities and occupy areas currently protected by foreign troops. The second was that international partners would continue providing reliable funding and logistical assistance until the national army could operate independently.

However, she warned that the conditions needed to make the transition successful were becoming increasingly difficult to guarantee.

"Those assumptions are questionable now," Gaid said, pointing to worsening donor fatigue and unresolved political friction in Mogadishu.

The combination of reduced foreign military support, financial difficulties and political divisions now threatens to complicate Somalia's efforts to secure its territory and prevent Al-Shabaab from exploiting the changing security arrangements.