A fast-growing El Niño weather pattern is expected to deepen the global food crisis, with the United Nations warning that another 50 million people could fall into acute hunger before the end of 2027 if vulnerable countries are unable to withstand its effects.
The warning comes as many communities across the world are still recovering from years of drought, failed harvests and rising food costs driven by the war in Iran. The World Food Programme (WFP) says the developing weather event could push food insecurity to even higher levels, adding to the estimated 225 million people already facing acute hunger in 45 countries where the agency operates.
The agency's latest assessment, released on Wednesday, shows that Central and South America, the Caribbean and southern Africa are likely to face the greatest hardship as changing weather patterns disrupt rainfall and crop production. Parts of South and South-East Asia are also expected to receive less rainfall than normal, increasing the risk of poor harvests and food shortages for farming communities.
The WFP says the situation remains worrying even if El Niño does not reach its highest projected strength. Many countries already dealing with fragile food systems could still see large numbers of people slip deeper into hunger.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that develops every few years in the Pacific Ocean and changes rainfall across many parts of the world. This year's event is expected to be the strongest experienced in at least seven decades. Although some experts have referred to it as a "super El Niño", the description has no official scientific status.
Climate experts have also linked the expected impacts to the wider effects of global warming. Earlier this year, scientists warned that a powerful El Niño combined with rising global temperatures could help drive the hottest year ever recorded, either this year or more likely in 2027.
While several private forecasting firms have already projected higher global food prices because of the developing weather system, the WFP says its latest report is the first to closely measure the likely increase in hunger around the world. The agency plans to reduce the impact through early warning systems and anticipatory humanitarian assistance, with at least $80 million allocated for those efforts.
Even so, the WFP says many farming households could continue to struggle long after the weather event has passed because food stocks often run out months after harvests have ended.
In southern Africa, where the main farming season runs from October this year until March 2027, the agency expects the greatest pressure on food supplies to emerge during the following lean season.
"The biggest food security impact, in southern Africa, will be during the 2027 to 2028 lean season," said Richard Choularton, the WFP's director of the climate and resilience service.
The agency says last year's strong harvest should provide some temporary support for farming communities.
"At the end of 2025, food prices were in favourable ranges, though there has been upward pressure from the war in the Middle East," said Jean-Martin Bauer, the WFP's director of food security.
During the 2015-16 El Niño, between 60 million and 100 million people experienced acute food insecurity, a level of hunger below famine. WFP officials say the organisation is now better prepared than it was then because it has expanded anticipatory response programmes designed to help communities before disasters reach their peak.
However, Choularton said preparations have faced setbacks because funding shortages have reduced the collection of data needed to improve forecasting and disaster planning.
The WFP's analysis focuses on 45 countries where reliable food security data is available, but the agency says the impact could stretch beyond those nations as weather conditions affect agricultural production elsewhere.
Bauer also warned that food prices could climb further depending on decisions made by major food-exporting countries.
"This will also depend on the choices that exporting countries make. It's very important to avoid a situation where large countries stop food exports," he said. "At the regional level, there could certainly be high prices and [problems with] food access."
Beyond the regions highlighted in the report, farmers in the UK and other parts of Europe are already reporting that prolonged heat and below-average rainfall are affecting crop yields, raising concerns that consumers could face higher food prices in the months ahead.