The United Opposition is facing differing expectations from its supporters over how soon it should settle on a presidential candidate for the 2027 elections, with a new poll showing that while some want the decision made this year, a larger group is willing to wait until the first quarter of next year.
The Trends Insight for Africa (Tifa) survey found that 45 per cent of opposition supporters favour January to March 2027 as the ideal period for unveiling a joint presidential candidate and running mate.
However, 35 per cent want the opposition principals to conclude their negotiations and announce their preferred candidates before the end of December 2026, pointing to pressure for an earlier resolution of the succession contest.
Another 16 per cent would rather see the announcement made between April and June 2027, while three per cent were undecided.
The respondents were asked: "When should the opposition announce its joint presidential candidate and running mate for the 2027 General Election?"
In its assessment of the findings released on Thursday by lead researcher Tom Wolf, Tifa noted that although the first quarter of 2027 was the most popular choice, a considerable section of opposition supporters wanted the decision made sooner.
"While a plurality prefer that this be done early next year, a substantial minority indicate that it should be done sooner," Tifa said.
The findings come as opposition leaders continue holding consultations aimed at avoiding a divided presidential contest against President William Ruto in the August 10, 2027 General Election.
DCP leader Rigathi Gachagua has emerged as one of the key figures driving the negotiations, hosting fellow opposition principals as they explore the possibility of fielding one candidate.
Gachagua has maintained that the leaders will eventually agree on a common flagbearer, arguing that a joint presidential bid offers the opposition its strongest chance of unseating Ruto.
Following a meeting with DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka at his Wamunyoro residence in Nyeri County on October 26, Gachagua reiterated their commitment to the arrangement.
"We are in agreement that the identification of a single presidential candidate is the surest path to win the next year’s General Elections, and we are all fully committed to that goal," he said.
The race for the opposition ticket is already attracting interest from several senior politicians, including Gachagua, Kalonzo, Linda Mwananchi's Edwin Sifuna, Jubilee Party leader Fred Matiang'i and People's Liberation Party leader Martha Karua.
Beyond the presidential succession question, Tifa sought to establish whether supporters believe the different opposition groups can overcome their political differences and work together before the next election.
On the likelihood of the Linda Mwananchi and Ukombozi opposition leaders joining forces, 57 per cent of respondents said such an outcome was "very likely".
A further 22 per cent described a possible agreement as "somewhat likely", bringing the combined level of optimism about a united opposition to 79 per cent.
On the other hand, eight per cent felt an agreement was "not very likely", while seven per cent said it was "not likely at all". Another six per cent were unsure.
The results indicate that despite uncertainty over the presidential ticket and the ambitions of individual leaders, most opposition supporters remain hopeful that the different political camps will reach an understanding before the 2027 polls.
The survey was carried out between October 26 and November 5, 2026, using face-to-face household interviews with 2,036 respondents across nine regions: Central Rift, Coast, Lower Eastern, Mt Kenya, Nairobi, Northern, Nyanza, South Rift and Western.
Most interviews were conducted in Kiswahili, with some in English. Tifa reported a margin of error of plus or minus 2.16 percentage points.