Ethiopians cast their ballots on Monday in parliamentary and regional elections that are widely expected to deliver another overwhelming victory for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his Prosperity Party, even as ongoing conflicts and political tensions continue to affect large parts of the country.
More than 50 million people have registered to vote in the polls, which are expected to further strengthen Abiy’s hold on power. However, voting is not taking place in the northern Tigray region, where electoral authorities cited “unfavourable conditions” following the devastating civil war that lasted from 2020 to 2022 and the political uncertainty that remains in the area.
Abiy, 49, first came to power in 2018 after widespread protests forced changes within the then-ruling EPRDF coalition. His Prosperity Party secured a commanding majority in the 2021 elections, winning 410 of the 484 parliamentary seats contested.
During the campaign, Prosperity Party candidates highlighted the government's achievements, pointing to improvements in food security and economic performance. Officials project Ethiopia’s economy will grow by more than 10 per cent in 2026, making it one of the fastest-growing economies in Africa.
The election comes as Ethiopia's population reaches about 135 million people, with nearly half aged under 18.
Despite expectations of a comfortable victory for the ruling party, Abiy faces growing security challenges in some of the country's most populous regions. Armed conflicts linked to ethnic and political grievances continue to affect Oromiya and Amhara, Ethiopia's two largest regions.
In Oromiya, Abiy’s home region, clashes between government forces and the Oromo Liberation Army have claimed hundreds of lives over recent years. In neighbouring Amhara, fighters linked to the Fano militia have controlled large areas of the countryside since 2023.
The insecurity has disrupted the electoral process in several areas. Voting will not be held in at least eight of Amhara's 138 constituencies because of the ongoing conflict.
Although a peace agreement signed in 2022 brought an end to the war in Tigray, concerns about stability remain. Tensions resurfaced last month after the region's main political party moved to re-establish control over Tigray’s political administration, prompting warnings from Ethiopian officials and analysts about the possibility of renewed unrest.
Even with these challenges, analysts expect the Prosperity Party to dominate the vote, with opposition groups entering the elections weakened by internal divisions and rivalries.
Opposition parties have accused the government of limiting their political activities through arrests of leaders and legal restrictions. Authorities have rejected those accusations.
Media access has also become a point of concern. Reuters has been unable to report from inside Ethiopia since mid-February after the Ethiopian Media Authority declined to renew accreditation for its three journalists based in Addis Ababa.
Abiy entered office promising major reforms, opening up parts of Ethiopia’s tightly controlled economy and releasing journalists, activists and political prisoners. His efforts to end years of hostility with Eritrea earned him the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019.
However, critics and human rights groups say some of those early gains have been reversed. They accuse the government of detaining journalists, restricting civil society organisations and overseeing military operations linked to serious human rights violations.
The government denies carrying out systematic abuses and maintains that its actions are aimed at safeguarding national security.
Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have also deteriorated in recent years despite the earlier peace deal. One source of tension has been Abiy’s repeated remarks that Ethiopia, which is landlocked, has a right to access the sea.
Eritrea has interpreted the comments as an implied threat of military action. Abiy has insisted that while sea access remains an “existential” issue for Ethiopia, his government intends to pursue the matter through dialogue rather than conflict.
Official election results are expected to be announced by June 11.