Political risk analyst Dismas Mokua has questioned whether Edwin Sifuna's Linda Mwananchi movement can maintain its growing political momentum, arguing that lasting influence will depend on whether it develops into an independent political force built around clear ideas rather than prominent personalities.
Speaking during a Radio Generation interview on Thursday, Mokua said the movement has managed to ignite political debate across the country at a time when the opposition landscape is changing. However, he maintained that its future will depend on whether it establishes a clear ideology, builds a structured political organisation and attracts support based on its agenda.
Mokua observed that politicians from different opposition parties have increasingly associated themselves with the Linda Mwananchi banner, creating the impression that it is emerging as a new centre of opposition politics.
Even so, he argued that growing visibility and public attention alone will not be enough to turn the movement into a lasting political force.
According to Mokua, Linda Mwananchi has gained traction after Raila Odinga stepped away from active opposition politics, but it has not clearly defined the policies or interests it seeks to champion. He said the movement still revolves around the profile of its leading figures, particularly Edwin Sifuna, making it difficult to identify what it stands for beyond its personalities.
He said political movements become sustainable when supporters unite around shared ideas instead of individuals, adding that many of those currently backing Linda Mwananchi still belong to different political parties.
"You are supposed to coalesce around an idea, not around personalities. The majority of the people within Linda Mwananchi are from different political parties. For instance, you've got guys from Wiper who are in that formation and other political parties. One would have expected that Sifuna and company would actually crystallise Linda Mwananchi into a political formation or a political party."
Mokua said the movement would have a stronger case if it transformed itself into an independent political vehicle and tested its popularity through an election.
He suggested that Sifuna could demonstrate the movement's strength by seeking a fresh mandate under the Linda Mwananchi banner rather than through an existing political party.
"If he resigned and caused a by-election in Nairobi for the Senate seat on a party aligned with Linda Mwananchi and he wins, then he would cause a stampede and everybody would be aligned to that political party. That is what Raila Odinga did some time ago, but he has not done that."
Mokua also pointed to fundraising efforts linked to the movement, saying public donations can reflect the level of support a political initiative enjoys. However, he cautioned that fundraising should not be viewed as the only measure of political strength.
"People give money for something they believe in. My point is that that is not the only indicator. It's one of the key variables. However, on the flip side, we know politicians in Kenya are very mischievous. They can actually flood that basket with resources so as to elevate somebody and use him for other activities."
He maintained that while Linda Mwananchi has succeeded in attracting national attention and public discussion, its long-term future will depend on whether it develops a clear political identity, builds an independent structure and convinces supporters to rally behind its ideas rather than the personalities leading it.