Kenya braces for possible strong El Niño and heavy rains

A strong El Niño event may hit Kenya later this year, with forecasts pointing to heavy rainfall, flooding and possible disruption across several regions if the current climate outlook materialises.

Global weather models show about a 60 per cent chance that El Niño will develop between June and August 2026 and continue into 2027.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration puts the likelihood at 61 per cent for the May to July period and also warns of a 25 per cent chance of a very strong event.

Australia’s meteorological agencies have issued similar warnings, saying the world could be heading toward one of the strongest El Niño events on record, with a small possibility of an extreme case beyond past experience.

In Kenya, the Meteorological Department has placed the probability of El Niño conditions at between 58 and 61 per cent from June to December. This raises expectations of above-normal rainfall, especially during the October to December short rains season.

“This could enhance rainfall during the October–November–December short rains, but also raise risks of flooding in vulnerable river basins,” the department said.

The expected rains may benefit farming, especially maize and beans, by improving yields in some areas. However, experts warn that the same rains could also trigger floods, damage roads and bridges, and force communities to move, cancelling out possible gains.

The concern is linked to memories of the 1997 to 1998 El Niño, which brought prolonged rains that caused severe flooding, destroyed infrastructure, disrupted transport and displaced thousands of families in Coast, North Eastern and Eastern regions.

The World Meteorological Organization has cautioned that early forecasts still carry uncertainty and should be tracked closely as conditions develop.

“Seasonal forecasts for El Niño and La Niña help avert economic losses and are essential planning tools for climate-sensitive sectors,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.

The agency has also noted that El Niño events are now occurring in a warming world, which is increasing the intensity of extreme weather and raising the chances of record rainfall and temperatures.

With the possibility of a strong El Niño building, experts say early preparedness will be key to reduce risks while taking advantage of improved rainfall in farming areas.