Over 151,000 CBE learners fail to complete Junior School

A new education assessment has revealed that more than 151,000 learners who began under the Competency-Based Education system did not make it to the end of junior school, raising concern over declining retention as learners advance and the growing number of girls leaving school before completion.

The data released by the Kenya National Examinations Council shows that while early progression remains steady, fewer learners stay in school through the later years, locking many out of the transition to senior school.

In 2025, about 1.1 million Grade 9 learners were placed in senior school under three pathways: Social Sciences, Arts and Sports, and Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics. Despite this, a notable number of learners from the original group did not reach this stage.

Figures from the 2025 National Assessment Insights show that the cohort that started Grade 3 in 2019 had 1.28 million learners. By the time they reached Grade 9 in 2025, the number had reduced to 1.13 million. This represents an 88.17 per cent retention rate, meaning 151,691 learners dropped out before completing junior school.

At the lower levels, the system holds most learners. In 2022, about 1.25 million candidates sat the Grade 6 Kenya Primary School Education Assessment, translating to a retention rate of 97.77 per cent from Grade 3. However, this trend does not hold at junior school level, where numbers fall sharply.

KPSEA is used at Grade 6 to gauge learners’ understanding of competencies and to guide their move to junior school.

Gender data shows a steady decline in the number of girls as learners progress. Girls made up 47.1 per cent of learners in Grade 3 in 2019 and 47.2 per cent in Grade 6 in 2022. By Grade 9 in 2025, their share had dropped to 43 per cent, compared to 45.1 per cent for boys, pointing to higher dropout rates among girls.

“In 2019, Grade 3 KEYA, there were 604,522 girls and 677,628 boys, totalling 1.28 million, showing 100 per cent retention. In 2022, in Grade 6, there were 604,964 girls and 648,613 boys, totalling 1.25 million, which equated to a retention rate of 97.77 per cent. However, by 2025, the number of girls had fallen to 551,829, while the number of boys had fallen to 578,691, totalling 1.13 million and representing an 88.17 per cent retention rate,” said Mr Githinji.

The report also points to a growing number of overage learners in basic education, noting that they face difficulties in meeting expected learning levels. This underscores the need for children to join school at the right age and receive extra support where needed.

Out of 36,591 schools assessed, 65.8 per cent were public while 34 per cent were private, with a total enrolment of 1.3 million learners. Boys accounted for 50.9 per cent while girls stood at 49.1 per cent.

Age analysis shows that 69.9 per cent of learners were within the expected age bracket of 8 to 9 years, while 24.5 per cent were overage and 5.4 per cent were underage.

Learners performed well in hands-on, oral and project work across most subjects. However, performance gaps were seen in theory-heavy areas such as grammar, reading comprehension, mathematics and parts of social studies and religious education.

Girls showed stronger results in literacy tasks at higher levels, while boys were more likely to fall in lower performance categories, a trend that was seen across different grades.

In Grade 4, 27.9 per cent of learners were overage, rising to 31.5 per cent in Grade 5. Learners within the correct age group were more likely to meet expectations, while overage learners were mostly found in the lower performance bands.

The 2025 KPSEA results showed a high transition rate, with 96.9 per cent of learners moving from Grade 3 in 2022 to Grade 6 in 2025. Enrolment stood at 1.2 million, with boys accounting for 51 per cent and girls 48 per cent.

Age differences remained evident. In Grade 6, 37 per cent of learners were overage, compared to 59 per cent who were of the correct age and 2.4 per cent who were underage. At junior school level, the gap widened, with 42 per cent of Grade 7 learners overage before dropping to 20 per cent in Grade 8.

The first Kenya Junior School Education Assessment in 2025 evaluated learners’ readiness for senior school pathways.

Of the 1.13 million learners assessed, 51.2 per cent were boys and 48.8 per cent were girls. About 56.8 per cent were within the expected age range of 14 to 15 years, while 36.7 per cent were older and 3.1 per cent younger.

Performance varied, with strong results in agriculture, Kiswahili, creative arts and home science, while mathematics and Kenyan Sign Language posed challenges.

Girls and learners within the correct age group continued to perform better, while overage learners were more likely to fall in lower performance categories.

The report also highlights disparities among learners with disabilities, with those who are hearing or visually impaired recording higher rates of performance below expectations in languages, mathematics and integrated science.

KNEC has called for sustained use of school-based assessments, early identification of learning gaps and teaching approaches tailored to meet the needs of all learners.