Kenya is expected to make progress in reducing food assistance needs by March 2027, but the country could still have as many as 2.49 million people requiring urgent support as El Niño-related rains threaten to cause flooding and damage crops, livestock and livelihoods.
The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) estimates that between 2 million and 2.49 million people will need urgent food assistance in March 2027. This would mark a decline from the 3.5 million to 3.99 million people projected to require assistance in September 2026.
The March 2027 estimate is also below the level recorded in the previous year and Kenya’s five-year average, according to FEWS NET’s September 2026 Food Assistance Outlook Brief.
Despite the expected improvement, the agency has warned of a difficult period ahead as Kenya prepares for above-average rainfall between October and December.
The El Niño-related rains are expected to bring flash floods to some areas, raising the risk of localised displacement and losses affecting farming and livestock activities.
“In the near-term, above-average El Niño-related rainfall from October–December is expected to cause flash flooding, resulting in localized displacement, crop and livestock losses, and disruptions to markets and livelihoods,” FEWS NET said.
The heavy rains could therefore affect food production and household incomes before conditions improve later in the forecast period.
FEWS NET expects conditions in pastoral areas to improve by March as water and pasture become more available.
The expected recovery should help increase milk production while supporting income from livestock activities. Many pastoral areas are projected to improve from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Stressed (IPC Phase 2).
However, livestock production will continue to face limits because of the damage caused by earlier drought and poor rainfall.
“Below-average herd sizes due to the lingering impacts of the 2021-2023 drought and failed late-2025 short rains will still constrain total output,” the report said.
The recovery in pasture and water supplies is therefore expected to offer some relief to pastoral households, although livestock numbers will remain below normal and continue to affect overall production.
The expected improvement in Kenya’s wider food security situation will not cover every population.
FEWS NET projects that Dadaab and Kakuma refugee camps will remain in Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) in March 2027.
Food assistance will continue to play a key role in the camps, with the agency warning that the support is needed to keep conditions from falling to Emergency levels.
“Humanitarian food assistance remains critical to preventing Emergency (IPC Phase 4),” FEWS NET said.
The exclamation mark attached to the IPC classification means conditions would likely be at least one phase worse if the current or planned humanitarian assistance was not available.
Kenya is also expected to record a decline in food assistance needs at a time when several other countries are projected to face an increase.
FEWS NET estimates that between 155 million and 165 million people across the countries it monitors could require urgent food assistance in March 2027.
Sudan, Pakistan, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Yemen and Afghanistan are expected to have some of the largest numbers of people requiring support.
South Sudan, Yemen and Sudan are also projected to have particularly high proportions of their populations needing assistance.
In Africa, FEWS NET expects food assistance needs to rise compared with the previous year in countries including Sudan, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda, Madagascar and Angola.
Kenya is among the countries expected to see a reduction.
The country will consequently enter the coming months with an improving longer-term food outlook but face a fresh weather challenge in the short term.
The October-December rains could result in flooding and losses in some areas before the expected gains from improved pasture and water availability are felt.
By March, millions of people are still expected to need urgent food assistance, while low herd numbers will continue to weigh on livestock production.
Dadaab and Kakuma are also expected to remain in Crisis, making continued humanitarian assistance necessary for the refugee populations.
Kenya’s food security picture is thus expected to improve, although the forecast points to continued pressure from weather-related risks and uneven recovery across different populations.