The United Green Movement (UGM) Party and its 2027 presidential candidate, retired Chief Justice David Maraga, have accused the government of failing to prepare for the powerful El Niño season expected later this year, warning that the country could face widespread destruction unless urgent measures are taken.
In a statement released on Tuesday, the party said weather forecasts from the Kenya Meteorological Department, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) point to what could be the worst El Niño event Kenya has experienced in 150 years.
“The Government is sleepwalking the country into a predictable climate disaster by failing to plan ahead of the forecasted ‘Godzilla’ El Niño rains,” the statement read.
UGM said scientists have projected an “8-in-10 chance” that the weather pattern will affect the region from October this year into the early months of next year. It also noted that the United Nations has listed Kenya among 22 countries facing the highest humanitarian risk because of the expected rains.
According to the party, the UN has already launched a Sh202 million global appeal aimed at assisting 8.8 million vulnerable Kenyans, warning that the coming rainy season could cause even greater damage than the devastating El Niño experienced in 1997.
“Yet, despite the alarm sounded by the experts there is no visible contingency preparation by the government to mitigate the looming disaster,” the statement added.
UGM said key sectors including agriculture, infrastructure and public health are exposed to serious risks if preparations are not made in time.
The party warned that maize that is yet to be harvested in Western Kenya and the North Rift could be destroyed through rotting and aflatoxin contamination. It also cautioned that flooding is expected along the Tana, Athi, Ewaso Nyiro, Rift Valley and Lake Victoria basins, while landslides could affect West Pokot, Elgeyo Marakwet, Nakuru and Murang’a. Bridges, schools and markets in vulnerable areas could also be swept away by the heavy rains.
It further warned that flooding could damage water and sanitation systems, increasing the risk of cholera, typhoid and malaria outbreaks if emergency medical supplies are not positioned before the rains begin.
“Failure to prepare is not ignorance, it is negligence. The State cannot wait for floods, landslides, and disease outbreaks, then rush in with cameras and corrupt ‘emergency’ tenders after lives and livelihoods have already been destroyed,” it said.
The party called on the government to urgently release county disaster mitigation funds, deploy mobile grain dryers and mechanical harvesters by August 10, reinforce riverbanks, stock cholera vaccines and anti-malarial drugs, and publish evacuation plans for communities living in flood-prone and landslide-risk areas.
UGM also urged Parliament to fast-track implementation of the Ukombozi Petition, saying the initiative would help mobilise unemployed youth to carry out drainage works, strengthen riverbanks and build water-harvesting infrastructure before the expected rains.
Its statement comes as climate experts continue urging both the national and county governments to activate anticipatory action measures ahead of the October-December rainy season.
Speaking during a recent webinar on the changing weather outlook, Kenya Meteorological Department Head of Public Weather Services Hannah Kimani said there is an 81 per cent probability that this year’s El Niño will become very strong and a 97 per cent chance that it will continue into early next year.
She said the level of destruction will depend on the strength of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), explaining that a positive IOD occurring alongside El Niño could produce rainfall similar to the devastating floods experienced in 1997.
“The 2015 was a very strong El Nino, close to 1997 but because the IOD was weakly positive, we did not experience as much rainfall as was experienced in 1997. The outcome of the season will majorly depend on the strength of the IOD,” Kimani said.
Climate scientists have also warned that communities living in floodplains, informal settlements, arid and semi-arid regions, as well as roads, markets and health facilities, remain highly exposed to the expected heavy rains, adding to calls for early planning before the October-December season begins.