EXCLUSIVE: Economist casts doubt on 800,000 jobs claim, cites informal sector dominance

Economist XN Iraki has raised fresh doubts over Kenya’s latest economic performance figures, saying official growth and employment data may not reflect what many citizens are going through in their daily lives.

He pointed to the 2026 Economic Survey, which shows the economy expanded by 4.6 per cent in 2025 and reports the creation of more than 800,000 jobs, but said the figures should be tested against real conditions in households, markets and workplaces.

The 2026 Economic Survey, compiled by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, reviews how the country performed economically in the previous year. It tracks areas such as farming, manufacturing, services, trade, inflation, jobs and public spending, helping guide national planning and development targets.

According to the report, economic growth slowed slightly from 4.7 per cent in 2024 to 4.6 per cent in 2025. It also shows that most of the job growth came from informal work, which continues to dominate employment in Kenya.

The survey draws its findings from national accounts, labour and household studies, government records and sector performance reports, and uses standard classification systems to measure output and employment trends across the economy.

While speaking during a Radio Generation interview on Thursday, Iraki said he had gone through the report and found the direction of growth surprising.

“One thing that caught my attention was that the growth rate has not gone up significantly,” he said, noting that the figure had declined from 4.7% to 4.6%.

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He added that expectations had been higher given the economic agenda being promoted by the current leadership.

Iraki also questioned the meaning of the reported job numbers, saying many Kenyans may not feel the effect in their everyday lives.

“When I talk to people on the streets, my relatives, my neighbors, those who are my students who have graduated, that number does not reflect,” he said.

He explained that when formal employment opportunities are limited, many people are pushed into small businesses and casual work.

“The big question is whether they are quality jobs,” he said.

He noted that this shift is not unusual, since informal activity already makes up a large share of the economy and absorbs most new workers entering the job market.

According to him, the structure of Kenya’s economy means that informal work will always play a major role in employment absorption.

“As an economist nowadays, despite reading all the books and textbooks, I still believe in reality. I believe in what taxi people tell me. I believe what mama mboga tells me,” he said.

Iraki said it is important to compare official data with what ordinary citizens experience in order to understand the real economic situation.

He also stressed that economic performance should not only be judged through numbers but also through how people feel about their lives.

“In economics the sentiment, the feelings, matter even more than statistics,” he said.

The economist further said Kenya should measure its progress against long-term goals rather than short-term political comparisons.

“Kibaki gave us Vision 2030 and since then, the benchmark has been 10%,” he said. “We should be asking, why have we not reached the magical 10% growth rate?”

He said growth of just above 4 per cent remains too low to create wide transformation in living standards.

On food production and prices, Iraki said recent stability in food supply has been driven more by weather patterns than government action.

“The biggest contributor is the rain,” he said.

He added that while fertiliser support programmes may have helped farmers, rainfall has had a stronger influence on harvests.

Iraki also warned that Kenya is losing its ability to produce and store enough food as it did in earlier decades.

“Today we don’t even have food to store,” he said.

He linked this to smaller land sizes, population pressure and declining interest in farming among younger people.

“The average age of a farmer is 63 years. Young people don’t want to be farmers,” he said.

He called for stronger investment in agriculture, better access to credit, and policies that protect agricultural land from excessive subdivision.

The economist also said Nairobi should not be treated as the main reflection of the country’s economy, noting that it attracts resources and talent from other regions.

“Nairobi has too much money that we cannot use it as a benchmark of how the Kenyan economy is behaving,” he said.

On the Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda, Iraki said the idea connects with many citizens because it focuses on those at the lower levels of income generation. However, he said real change requires access to capital, skills and education.

He added that a healthy economy should allow people to save after covering basic needs.

“To me, the best indicator of whether economy is doing well is to ask people whether they can save,” he said.

Iraki warned that when economic growth is reported but not experienced by citizens, it may point to widening inequality.

“When there is growth and people are not feeling it, it's usually an indicator that there is inequality in that country,” he said.