Ruto faces new 2027 challenge as Sifuna matches him at 31% in TIFA Poll

President William Ruto faces a new challenge in the race for a second term after Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna emerged as his joint frontrunner, with both leaders polling 31 per cent in the latest TIFA Research survey released on Thursday, November 12.

The findings show a sharp rise in Sifuna's popularity, placing him level with the Head of State ahead of the August 2027 General Election, despite having recorded no measurable support in several earlier surveys conducted between 2022 and 2025.

Ruto, on the other hand, has maintained an upward trend, with his support increasing from 18 per cent in August 2022 to 31 per cent in the November 2026 survey.

In its assessment of the latest findings, TIFA Research stated that "Ruto and Sifuna emerge as joint frontrunners, while support for other presidential aspirants continues to decline."

The two leaders have opened a considerable gap over other politicians mentioned in the survey, with former Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka coming in third at nine per cent.

Kalonzo's latest rating marks a decline from the 25 per cent support he recorded in November 2025, when his popularity reached its highest level in the surveys. Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang'i followed with five per cent, continuing a downward trend from 32 per cent in August 2022.

Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua also recorded a drop in support, attracting four per cent compared to his highest rating of nine per cent in May 2026.

Other individuals seeking the presidency collectively attracted one per cent support, while 15 per cent of those interviewed had yet to settle on their preferred candidate.

A further four per cent declined to reveal their choice, a figure TIFA described as low and stable.

The latest results provide an indication of how Kenyans currently view the presidential contest, although the research firm cautioned against treating the figures as a forecast of the 2027 election outcome.

TIFA observed that several factors could alter the political landscape before Kenyans head to the ballot, including the formation of alliances, campaign promises, formal declarations by candidates and other political developments.

The survey was carried out between October 26 and November 5, 2026, through face-to-face interviews conducted in respondents' households.

A total of 2,036 people were interviewed across nine regions, namely Central Rift, Coast, Lower Eastern, Mt Kenya, Nairobi, Northern, Nyanza, South Rift and Western.

Most of the interviews were conducted in Kiswahili, while English was also used for some respondents.

TIFA reported a margin of error of plus or minus 2.16 percentage points, noting that the margin was higher when analysing smaller groups of respondents.