Heavy rains, strong winds to hit dozens of Counties, Kenya Met warns

The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) has warned of moderate to heavy rainfall, flash floods and strong winds across dozens of counties, urging residents to remain vigilant as the country enters the October–December short rains season.

In an advisory issued on Sunday, the meteorological agency forecast rainfall exceeding 20mm within 24 hours across the Coast, Northeastern region, Highlands West and East of the Rift Valley, Central Highlands, including parts of Nairobi, and sections of the Southeastern Lowlands.

The rainfall is expected to bring gusty winds, with the heaviest downpours anticipated between October 26 and 28, before rainfall intensity begins to decrease towards the end of the month.

“The rainfall is likely to be accompanied by gusty winds and strong southerly to southeasterly winds exceeding 25 knots (12.5 m/s) over coastal, eastern and northern regions,” the authority said.

Counties listed include Mombasa, Kwale, Kilifi, Tana River, and Lamu in the Coast region, along with Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Marsabit, and Isiolo in the north and northeast.

Other affected areas include Migori, Nyamira, Bungoma, Busia, Kakamega, Vihiga, West Pokot, Baringo, Elgeyo Marakwet, Trans Nzoia, Nandi, Uasin Gishu, Nakuru, Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Kisii, Kericho and Bomet.

The warning also covers Kiambu, Embu, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Laikipia, Tharaka-Nithi, Meru, Narok and Kajiado, as well as parts of Nairobi, Taita-Taveta, Kitui, Machakos and Makueni.

The agency cautioned residents in the affected areas against underestimating flood risks, warning that dangerous water flows could occur even in places that have not experienced heavy rainfall.

“Residents in all the mentioned areas should remain vigilant for potential flash floods and poor visibility. Note that flood waters may occur in areas where it has not rained heavily, particularly downstream,” the advisory stated.

The warning highlights the risk of flooding beyond locations experiencing intense rainfall, particularly in low-lying areas and downstream settlements where water can accumulate from rain falling elsewhere.

Residents have been advised to avoid seeking shelter under trees or near grilled windows during storms to reduce exposure to lightning strikes.

The advisory comes as Kenya prepares for the peak of the short rains season, which can bring prolonged wet spells and isolated storms, affecting transport, infrastructure, agriculture, and communities in flood-prone areas.

The latest warning comes as forecasts point to enhanced rainfall across much of Kenya during the October–December 2026 season as El Niño develops and strengthens.

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon characterised by warmer-than-normal surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It can influence atmospheric circulation and alter rainfall patterns in different parts of the world.

The World Meteorological Organisation and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s Climate Prediction and Applications Centre have reported a higher likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions across parts of the Greater Horn of Africa in the final quarter of 2026.

Kenya’s seasonal outlook also projects above-average rainfall across much of the country, raising concerns about flash floods, waterlogging, landslides, and infrastructure damage in vulnerable areas.

However, El Niño does not automatically mean that every part of Kenya will experience the same rainfall intensity. Local weather conditions and other climate systems influence the timing, where, and how much rainfall different regions receive.

KMSA has urged residents in the affected counties to remain alert to changing weather conditions and the possibility of sudden flooding, including in areas where rainfall appears limited.