Over 3 million Kenyans face hunger as new report warns of worsening crisis

Millions of Kenyans are facing mounting difficulties accessing food, with a new regional assessment warning that more than three million people are already experiencing severe food shortages as changing weather patterns, displacement and economic hardship take a toll on household incomes and livelihoods.

The assessment by the Food Security and Nutrition Working Group for the East and Central Africa region estimates that 3,086,659 people in Kenya are in crisis or worse, placing them at risk of further deterioration if current conditions persist.

Of this population, 2,660,922 people fall under the crisis category, while 425,737 have been classified in the emergency phase, reflecting the severity of the challenges facing vulnerable households.

The report, titled Implications for Rainfall, Flood Risk and Food Security, also identifies another 6,988,778 Kenyans as being in the stressed category, meaning they are facing difficulties meeting their basic needs despite not yet falling into the more severe classifications.

It warns that the number of people experiencing acute food insecurity across East and Central Africa is likely to remain high, with some areas facing the possibility of further deterioration.

Kenya's growing food crisis mirrors a wider regional problem, with millions of people across neighbouring countries struggling to maintain access to adequate food.

By September 2026, about 25 million people in countries belonging to the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) had been classified in crisis or worse. Across all countries reporting under the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), the figure had reached approximately 55 million.

The regional figures reveal the depth of the humanitarian situation, with about 19 million people in IGAD countries experiencing crisis-level food insecurity and another six million in the emergency category.

An estimated 170,000 people had reached IPC Phase 5, which covers the most severe conditions of famine or catastrophe.

The report attributes the worsening outlook to prolonged periods of unfavourable weather, insecurity, forced displacement and economic difficulties, which have reduced the capacity of affected communities to sustain their livelihoods and secure sufficient food.

Between June and September 2026, below-average rainfall and extended dry spells affected Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, western Kenya and parts of Ethiopia.

The conditions disrupted communities whose livelihoods depend on crop production and livestock keeping, leaving them more exposed to food shortages and financial strain.

However, the report notes that the region could also experience serious consequences from excessive rainfall in the coming months.

Heavy or persistent rains between October and December 2026 could result in flash floods, overflowing rivers, waterlogged land, landslides and destruction of infrastructure.

Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia are among the countries facing heightened exposure, particularly in areas prone to flooding.

Beyond the immediate destruction, such weather events could force residents out of their homes, interrupt trading activities and make it difficult for farmers and businesses to move food supplies to markets.

The disruptions could also affect humanitarian agencies by restricting access to communities requiring urgent assistance, further complicating efforts to address existing food shortages.

Although rainfall is important for agricultural production, the report cautions that excessive amounts could undermine the benefits expected from the coming rainy season.

While sufficient rain could help farmers establish crops, restore pasture and replenish water reserves, unusually heavy precipitation could destroy crops, interfere with harvesting and increase the spread of livestock diseases.

Disruptions to food transportation and supply networks could further limit the availability of essential commodities, placing additional pressure on households already struggling to afford basic necessities.

The report also raises concerns over the possible continuation of El Niño conditions into early 2027, warning that this could bring above-average rainfall during the March-May 2027 season in parts of the eastern Horn of Africa.

Although flood threats are projected to be less severe during the October-November-December 2026 period, the assessment cautions that the possibility of flooding remains.