March promises high-stakes theatre as 16 nations chase just four tickets to next year’s World Cup across the United States, Canada and Mexico. The one-legged European play-off semi-finals, followed by winner-takes-all finals, have delivered an electrifying draw: Wales will host Bosnia-Herzegovina, Northern Ireland travel to face Italy, and the Republic of Ireland must navigate a tricky trip to the Czech Republic for a place in the pot of survivors.
Paths to the World Cup — bracket by bracket
Path A: Italy v Northern Ireland; Wales v Bosnia-Herzegovina (winners of each tie host the final)
Path B: Ukraine v Sweden; Poland v Albania
Path C: Turkey v Romania; Slovakia v Kosovo
Path D: Denmark v North Macedonia; Czech Republic v Republic of Ireland (winner hosts the final)
The semi-finals are set for 26 March, with the finals played five days later on 31 March. Every tie is a single match — no second chances, no return leg. The draw in Switzerland placed top seeds at home against the lowest-seeded pot, and arranged the pairings so each winner already knows their possible final opponent and who would host it.
Wales: a familiar stage for a nation chasing history
For Wales, the draw reads like irresistible opportunity. The Dragons will again enjoy home advantage, this time against Bosnia-Herzegovina — a tie that rekindles memories of Cardiff nights past. Since the single-leg play-off format was introduced, Wales have staged each of their decisive games at Cardiff City Stadium; by the end of March they could well have played six of six on home soil.
Cardiff is where Wales punched their ticket to Euro 2016 after a 58-year drought, and it’s where another chapter could be written. Should they progress, a home final looms — possibly against Italy, whose last Cardiff visit ended in a 2-1 defeat in 2002 when Wales’ coach Craig Bellamy was the match-winner. The storylines are rich: home comfort, history, and the chance to reach a second consecutive World Cup in only the third finals appearance in the nation’s history.
Northern Ireland: small margins, monumental task
Northern Ireland face a mountainous challenge: an away trip to four-time World Cup winners Italy. Historically the sides have met 11 times with a solitary Northern Ireland victory — a famous 1958 result that helped send them to that year’s finals in Sweden. The optimism that springs from history is tempered by reality: FIFA rankings mark this as the toughest possible draw for Michael O’Neill’s squad.
If Northern Ireland were to upset Italy, they would still likely face another away final against either Wales or Bosnia — a brutal path, but one that offers the kind of underdog narrative football revels in.
Republic of Ireland and the rest of the field
The Republic of Ireland travel to the Czech Republic with dreams of a home final should they progress and meet Denmark or North Macedonia. Elsewhere, the bracket includes heavyweight matchups such as Ukraine v Sweden and Poland v Albania, and unpredictable ties like Slovakia v Kosovo. Twelve teams reached the play-offs by finishing second in their qualifying groups; four — including Northern Ireland — earned a route via last season’s Nations League triumphs.
The European draw sets the stage; the global draw, which will place England and Scotland among the tournament field, is scheduled for 5 December in Washington, DC.
Intercontinental play-offs: two more slots up for grabs in Mexico
Beyond Europe, the intercontinental play-offs will take place in Mexico in late March. Six teams will battle for two World Cup berths. The format sends the four lowest-ranked teams into semis, while the higher-seeded DR Congo and Iraq await the winners in two separate finals.
Semi-final: New Caledonia v Jamaica — Final: DR Congo v New Caledonia/Jamaica
Semi-final: Bolivia v Suriname — Final: Iraq v Bolivia/Suriname
With single-leg drama, historical echoes and dream-or-ruin stakes, the road to the World Cup has never felt so close — or so perilous. March will decide which nations’ summer dreams live on and which will be left to plot for the future.
