TIFA Poll: Linda Mwananchi overtakes ODM as UDA party takes top spot

The United Democratic Alliance (UDA) has emerged as Kenya’s most popular political party after gaining eight percentage points in five months, while the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has lost half of its support, according to a new opinion poll by TIFA Research.

The survey, released on Thursday, November 12, 2026, shows UDA's popularity rising from 17 per cent in June to 25 per cent in November, putting the ruling party ahead of its competitors as political activity gathers pace ahead of the 2027 General Election.

ODM, which previously held the second position, recorded the steepest decline among the leading parties, with its support falling from 20 per cent to 10 per cent over the same period.

The latest findings also point to the growing influence of emerging political movements, with Linda Mwananchi, associated with The Equitable Party (TEP), attracting 17 per cent support to become the second most popular political formation in the survey.

This places the movement ahead of ODM, marking a notable change in the political standings captured by the latest research.

"UDA has strengthened its position, rising from 17% in June to 25% in November 2026, while ODM has declined sharply from 20% to 10%," the survey noted.

The figures come at a time when political parties and movements are repositioning themselves ahead of the next elections, with established political outfits facing competition from newer formations seeking to attract voters.

The Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP), linked to former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, recorded nine per cent support in November, down from 12 per cent in June.

Wiper also lost ground, with its popularity declining from eight per cent to five per cent, while Jubilee Party experienced an even sharper drop, falling from 11 per cent to four per cent.

The survey further shows that support for other political parties declined from seven per cent in June to zero per cent in November.

Despite the changes among individual parties, the number of Kenyans who remain undecided or do not associate themselves with any political party has stayed constant at 28 per cent.

However, the latest figure marks a considerable shift from September 2025, when 42 per cent of respondents said they were undecided or did not identify with any political party.

Historical figures included in the survey also show that UDA had 33 per cent support in August 2022, compared with ODM's 29 per cent at the time.

The latest November 2026 findings were based on responses from all survey participants, according to TIFA Research.