TIFA survey: 43% link Rigathi Gachagua to opposition divisions

Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has emerged as the politician most widely blamed for the growing disagreements within Kenya’s opposition, with 43 per cent of respondents identifying him as the main source of divisions, a new TIFA Research survey has revealed.

The survey, released on Thursday, November 12, places Gachagua well ahead of other political figures, with President William Ruto and his United Democratic Alliance (UDA) government coming second at 15 per cent.

Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna was named by seven per cent of respondents, while Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i each received four per cent.

Embakasi East MP Babu Owino was mentioned by two per cent of those interviewed. Former President Uhuru Kenyatta, Siaya Governor James Orengo and Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro also recorded two per cent each.

Nairobi Governor Johnson Sakaja was not listed among the figures in the findings, while former President's allies were also mentioned. George Natembeya, the Trans Nzoia Governor, received one per cent.

TIFA noted that some respondents may have blamed Ruto because they believe his administration benefits from the disagreements within the opposition or could be playing a role in influencing them.

Despite the concerns over internal divisions, the survey found that most opposition supporters remain hopeful that rival political formations will overcome their differences and work together ahead of the 2027 General Election.

The findings showed that 57 per cent of opposition supporters considered a possible alliance between leaders associated with the Linda Mwananchi Movement and the United Opposition/Ukombozi group to be "very likely".

Another 22 per cent described the possibility as "somewhat likely", bringing the proportion of those who expect the two camps to unite to 79 per cent.

However, not all respondents were convinced that the groups would reach an agreement. Eight per cent said a reunion was "not very likely", while seven per cent ruled out the possibility, describing it as "not likely at all".

A further six per cent said they were unsure whether the two political formations would eventually come together.

The poll also examined when opposition supporters would want the coalition to settle on and announce its joint presidential candidate and running mate ahead of the next election.

A majority, representing 45 per cent, preferred the announcement to be made during the first three months of 2027, between January and March.

Another 35 per cent wanted the opposition to agree on its presidential ticket before the end of 2026, suggesting that a sizeable section of supporters would prefer the coalition to resolve its leadership question before entering the election year.

Meanwhile, 16 per cent favoured an announcement between April and June 2027, while three per cent were undecided.

The findings highlight differing views among opposition supporters on when their leaders should conclude negotiations and unveil a joint presidential ticket, although optimism about a possible alliance remains high.

TIFA conducted the survey between October 26 and November 5, 2026, using face-to-face household interviews involving 2,036 respondents drawn from nine regions across the country.

The regions covered were Central Rift, Coast, Lower Eastern, Mt Kenya, Nairobi, Northern, Nyanza, South Rift and Western.

Most of the interviews were conducted in Kiswahili, with some respondents interviewed in English. The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.16 percentage points, although the margin was higher for smaller groups of respondents.

For the questions examining opposition unity and the preferred timing for announcing a joint presidential candidate and running mate, TIFA interviewed a smaller sample of 758 opposition supporters.