Kenya is stepping up preparations for the October-December 2026 rainfall season as a strengthening El Niño raises the possibility of heavy rains, flooding and other weather-related risks across several parts of the country.
The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) said on Friday that the government is using the National Crisis Communication Standing Committee (NCCSC) to improve coordination and ensure Kenyans receive reliable weather information early enough to take precautionary measures.
The Authority said its technical teams are closely tracking changes in weather and climate conditions and will continue issuing forecasts, advisories and updates to national and county governments, humanitarian and development organisations, the media and the public.
“As Kenya prepares for the October–December (OND) 2026 rainfall season amid evolving El Niño conditions, the Government of Kenya is strengthening coordination through the National Crisis Communication Standing Committee (NCCSC) to ensure that accurate, timely, verified and actionable information reaches Kenyans early enough to support informed decisions and early action.”
The preparations come as the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reports that El Niño is now firmly established and could become stronger, with the weather phenomenon potentially reaching very strong levels before the end of 2026.
According to the WMO's latest update, there is an almost 100 percent chance that El Niño will continue through February 2027. The phenomenon can change normal rainfall and temperature patterns and raise the chances of extreme weather in affected areas.
The Greater Horn of Africa is among the regions expected to receive more rainfall in the last three months of the year. The WMO has identified October to December as a key rainfall period, accounting for up to 70 percent of annual rainfall in some areas of Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia.
Forecasts for the region show a 90 percent likelihood of increased rainfall in southern Ethiopia, central and southern Somalia and north-eastern Kenya. Some parts of central Kenya and the Lake Victoria Basin, together with neighbouring areas, could record seasonal rainfall of more than 400 millimetres.
The rains could bring benefits such as improved pasture and increased water supplies, but unusually heavy rainfall could also trigger flooding, destroy crops, damage infrastructure and contribute to outbreaks of water- and vector-borne diseases.
KMSA said its Acting Director General, Edward Muriuki, is providing the technical leadership required to support the country's preparations and response to the expected weather conditions.
“KMSA will continue monitoring the evolving weather and climate situation and provide timely, authoritative and science-based early warning information, forecasts, advisories and updates to Government, counties, partners, the media and the public.”
Kenya has previously experienced the effects of heavy rains associated with El Niño. During the 2023 October-December season, El Niño, together with a strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole, contributed to above-normal rainfall in many parts of the country.
KMSA reported that the floods during that period affected more than 750,000 people, while agriculture, infrastructure, health and other sectors suffered damage.
Despite the expected increase in rainfall, the Authority has urged the public to remain calm and avoid relying on unverified reports as the country heads into the season.
“There is no cause for panic, but there is every reason to prepare early, remain alert and follow verified Government and KMSA advisories.”
KMSA said it will continue working with national and county governments, humanitarian agencies, development partners and the media to ensure weather forecasts are linked to practical measures that can help communities prepare.
“We cannot control the El Niño phenomenon, but we can reduce its impacts through timely information, preparedness and early action.”
The Authority said continued monitoring and improved access to early warnings will be key to helping communities and institutions prepare for the October-December rains and reduce possible losses.