Homa Bay Town MP Peter Kaluma has claimed President William Ruto is unlikely to secure significant support from the Mt Kenya region in the 2027 General Election, urging the Head of State to shift his political focus following the outcome of the Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election.
Speaking during a Radio Generation interview on Wednesday, the lawmaker argued that the political mood in Mt Kenya had changed and that the region should no longer feature prominently in President Ruto's electoral calculations.
Kaluma noted that the President should instead concentrate on consolidating support in other parts of the country because he believes Mt Kenya voters have already made up their minds ahead of the next election.
The legislator maintained that he had consistently shared the same assessment within the broad-based government, insisting that the President was unlikely to receive even 15 per cent of votes from the region.
"Mt Kenya will not vote for William Ruto in 2027; that I am sure he should remove Mt Kenya from his calculations; the highest he can get is 15 percent."
Kaluma argued that continuing to invest political resources in Mt Kenya would not deliver the desired electoral outcome and advised the President to redirect his efforts elsewhere instead of relying on a region that overwhelmingly backed him in the 2022 General Election.
Kaluma also questioned the government's strategy during the July 16, 2026, Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election, saying substantial resources had been invested in the contest despite the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) suffering a heavy defeat.
The poll was won by Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) candidate Sammy Douglas Kamau Waweru (Ngotho), who secured 35,440 votes against UDA's Samuel Muchina Nyagah's 5,450, a landslide margin of 29,990 votes. The by-election attracted nine candidates seeking to succeed the late MP David Njuguna Kiaraho.
According to Kaluma, the outcome of the by-election should serve as an indication that the political landscape in the region has shifted and that future campaigns should take that reality into account.
His remarks come in the wake of growing debate over the implications of the Ol Kalou by-election, which has attracted political commentary from both government allies and opposition figures about its significance ahead of the 2027 General Election.
Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has also argued that the by-election reflects a changing political mood in Mt Kenya and signals challenges for President Ruto's re-election prospects.
Gachagua described the Ol Kalou outcome as an early indicator of what could unfold during the next General Election, maintaining that by-election results in the region have historically mirrored its political direction before national polls.
He argued that the latest vote demonstrated a shift in voter sentiment and predicted that President Ruto would face an uphill task in winning back support in Mt Kenya.
Kaluma's comments add to the growing political discourse surrounding the region's electoral influence, with leaders offering contrasting assessments of what the Ol Kalou by-election means for the country's political landscape ahead of the 2027 contest.
While the President's allies continue to defend his political standing, opposition figures increasingly point to the by-election as evidence that voting patterns in one of Kenya's most influential regions may be undergoing a significant realignment.