The Kenyan government has identified 18 counties as highly vulnerable to the effects of a potentially strong El Niño event expected to bring above-normal rainfall from October.
The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority has forecast an 81% probability of a strong El Niño developing this year, with a 97% likelihood that its effects could persist into early 2027.
A risk assessment by the National Disaster Operations Centre (NDOC) has identified areas exposed to flash floods, landslides, drought, disease outbreaks and infrastructure damage as authorities intensify preparations for the anticipated weather conditions.
The assessment identifies counties in the Coast, Lake Basin, Rift Valley and North Eastern regions among those facing the highest levels of vulnerability. Nairobi, Mombasa and Kisumu have also been identified as high-risk urban centres.
In a press release on Monday, the government said the mapping exercise was part of a wider preparedness plan aimed at reducing the impact of the anticipated weather conditions.
In the Coast region, Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu, Mombasa and Kwale have been identified as vulnerable to flooding, storm surges, coastal erosion and infrastructure damage. Some residents in the region could also be displaced by flooding.
The government said the Lake Basin counties of Kisumu, Busia, Siaya, Homa Bay and Migori could face flooding, landslides, disease outbreaks and displacement.
Nairobi, Mombasa and Kisumu are also expected to face urban flooding, blocked drainage systems, pressure on infrastructure and disruption of essential services.
In the Rift Valley, Turkana, Baringo, West Pokot and Narok have been identified as vulnerable to drought, flash floods, landslides, livestock losses and food insecurity.
The North Eastern counties of Garissa, Wajir and Mandera could experience drought, water shortages, livestock losses, poor pasture and food insecurity.
“The Government has mapped out areas exposed to various risks, including flash floods, landslides, drought, disease outbreaks and infrastructure damage. The national risk assessment, prepared by the National Disaster Operations Centre (NDOC), places counties in the Coastal, Lake Basin, Rift Valley and North Eastern regions among the areas facing the highest level of vulnerability,” the government said.
The authorities said the identified counties had been prioritised in emergency response planning according to their exposure to different risks associated with El Niño.
However, the government maintained that the list was not final and could be expanded if experts identified additional areas considered vulnerable to the expected weather conditions.
National Emergency Multi-Agency and County Emergency Response teams have been placed on high alert as preparations intensify.
“The National Emergency Multi-Agency and County Emergency response teams have been put on high alert and are being sensitized on their roles in view of the expected weather situations.”
The authorities are expected to use the risk assessment to guide preparedness and response measures across the affected counties, particularly in areas vulnerable to flooding, landslides and disease outbreaks.
The government has urged relevant response agencies to remain prepared as the country approaches the period when the El Niño effects are expected to begin.
The forecast comes amid preparations for potentially disruptive weather conditions from October, with the government seeking to strengthen coordination between national and county emergency teams before the onset of heavy rainfall.