A historic failure of the October–December rainy season has triggered renewed alarm over worsening food insecurity across the Horn of Africa.
According to a new analysis by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) up to 25 million people in Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya are now in need of humanitarian food assistance.
The region is experiencing one of the driest short rainy seasons on record, driven by La Niña conditions and an unusually strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole. The unfolding drought comes less than three years after the devastating 2020–2023 drought and is already severely undermining crop production, livestock health and household incomes across pastoral and agropastoral areas.
FEWS NET estimates that drought is the primary driver for more than half of current humanitarian needs. It warned that without a scale-up of food, water and nutrition assistance, Crisis-level hunger (IPC Phase 3) and worse outcomes will expand through May 2026.
“Several areas of Somalia are already projected to face Emergency-level food insecurity (IPC Phase 4), where rising malnutrition and starvation risks are expected,” said the organization, a leading provider of early warning and analysis on acute food insecurity around the world.
Seasonal rainfall totals across much of the region are less than 50 percent of average, with some areas receiving under 30 percent.
The poor rains follow erratic conditions recorded in 2025 and extreme heat during the mid-year dry season, accelerating water loss and pasture degradation. Vegetation levels in the worst-affected zones have fallen to below 60 percent of normal, while many water points are nearing depletion.
Crop losses are expected to be severe, particularly in Somalia and Ethiopia’s Somali Region, where some rain-fed harvests are projected at less than 10 percent of average.
Reduced local food supply has already contributed to sharp food price increases, with maize prices in parts of Kenya rising nearly 20 percent above the five-year average and sorghum prices in Somalia climbing by a quarter.
Pastoral livelihoods are also deteriorating rapidly as pasture and water shortages weaken livestock and cut milk production.
Reports from across the region indicate early livestock deaths, declining herd sizes and falling animal prices, limiting households’ ability to purchase food and water. Increased livestock migration is heightening disease risks and tensions over scarce resources.
“As food consumption gaps widen, acute malnutrition is rising, particularly among children. In Somalia, recent surveys show global acute malnutrition rates as high as 25 percent in some displacement sites, while parts of northern and eastern Kenya are recording critical nutrition levels,” it noted.
FEWS NET warned that the outlook hinges heavily on the performance of the March–May 2026 rains, which remain highly uncertain.
The urgency said a below-average season could sharply worsen hunger, erode remaining coping capacities and increase the risk of extreme outcomes, including the possibility of famine in the most severely affected areas.
