A new national opinion survey has placed President William Ruto at the top of the 2027 presidential preference rankings, while also showing a highly divided race with no clear dominant challenger as opposition support spreads across several figures.
The findings from TIFA Research were based on the question, "Whether or not you have ever voted or intend to vote in the future, whom would you like to win the 2027 presidential election?” Respondents were required to give only one answer.
In the results, William Ruto leads with 24 per cent support from more than 2,000 respondents drawn from across the country. He is followed by Kalonzo Musyoka who records 19 per cent.
Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i comes third with 14 per cent, while Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna follows at 10 per cent. Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua is placed fifth at 9 per cent. Embakasi East MP Babu Owino records 2 per cent support.
The survey further shows that 15 per cent of respondents have not settled on a preferred candidate. Another 3 per cent selected “other” candidates, while an additional 3 per cent did not give any response.
According to the report, the 2027 presidential race remains open and unpredictable, with no single contender commanding strong nationwide dominance. It adds that the opposition field remains divided, with support split across multiple leaders rather than coalescing around one main challenger.
The study also explored perceptions of ethnic community leadership, finding that less than half of Kenyans say their community currently has a recognised political leader.
Among those who said their community has a leader, there was wide variation in agreement on who that leader is. The highest unity was recorded among the Kamba community, where more than nine in 10 respondents identified Kalonzo Musyoka as their leader at 93 per cent.
Strong agreement also appeared among the Kisii community, with 83 per cent pointing to Fred Matiang’i as their leader. Among Kalenjin respondents, 73 per cent identified Ruto, while 70 per cent of Kikuyu respondents identified Rigathi Gachagua as their recognised leader.
Fieldwork for the survey was conducted between May 2 and May 11, 2026 through face-to-face household interviews carried out mainly in Swahili and English. The nationally representative sample covered nine zones, including Central Rift, Coast, Lower Eastern, Mt Kenya, Nairobi, Northern, Nyanza, South Rift and Western.
A total of 2,013 respondents were interviewed. The survey carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.18 per cent, with larger margins for smaller sub-samples.